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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft on QE3 SpeculationsWhile dollar is under broad based pressure today on QE3 speculations, European majors are relatively steady only as traders remains cautious ahead of German court ruling on ESM. According to a Reuters poll, economists are seeing 60% chance that Fed will announce additional stimulus this week. That's a sharp jump from the 45% change in a survey back in late August. USD/JPY breaches 78 level is is possibly heading down to 2012 low of 77.66. USD/CAD dips to 12 month low of 0.9718 but Aussie is outperforming today with AUD/CAD recovering. Data from US saw trade deficit came in narrower than expected at -42.0b in July. Canadian trade deficit widened to CAD -2.3b in July while housing starts improved to 225k in August. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0316; (P) 1.0351; (R1) 1.0368; More... AUD/USD's recovery from 1.0165 resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as high as 1.0413 in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.0612 to 1.0165 at 1.0441 and above. But again, we'll be cautious on reversal signal ahead of 1.0612 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0322 minor support will now indicate that such rebound is finished and flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0165 support. |
| Special Report |
Alan Bollard To Leave RBNZ Policy Rate Unchanged At 2.5%At his last statement as the RBNZ governor, Alan Bullard would likely leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, a status quo since March 2011. Domestic development since the July meeting has been largely positive with consumer spending picking up and reconstruction in Christchurch gaining momentum. Yet, these encouraging developments were against the lingering weakness in the global economic outlook. The meeting statement should remain largely the same the previous one. Graeme Wheeler will be the next RBNZ governor. Currently, we do not expect significant change in the direction of the central bank's stance under Wheeler's leadership although the RBNZ adopts a single decision maker (by the governor) rather than a committee for monetary policy decisions. China Watch: August Data Suggested China Needs More Easing from PBOCChina's macroeconomic data released for August indicated that growth in the world's second largest economy continued to slow. However, the government is trapped in a dilemma of whether to implement monetary easing as inflation rebounded during the month. Widening in trade surplus should not trigger a surge in RMB as China's other data remained sluggish. Yet, depreciation should also be limited as the US presidential election approaches. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency shot up again in part due to the warning from agency Moody's of an increasing likelihood of a U.S. rating cut, stops above 1.2825 barrier were tripped and defensive offers at 1.2840-50 are within range with more stops tipped above next barrier at 1.2850 and 1.2860 but fresh offers should emerge around 1.2890-00. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2800 and also at 1.2770-75 with stops placed below 1.2750 and more buying interests are tipped further out at 1.2700-10 with stops building up below 1.2700 and 1.2650 (large). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6005Current breach of indicated resistance a 1.6034 confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.6070 and then 1.6100-05 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6124 (previous resistance) and price should falter below 1.6150-60, risk from there is seen for another retreat later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0285Although aussie has retreated after rising to 1.0401 Last week, as the rally above indicated resistance at 1.0355 signals a temporary low has been formed at 1.0105 earlier, downside should be limited to 1.0280-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0165-1.0401) and bring another rise later, a break of said resistance would bring at least a stronger retracement of the decline from 1.0615 to 1.0440-50 and possibly towards 1.0490-00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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