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Mid-Day Report: Euro Consolidation Continues, Might Retreat DeeperEuro continues to consolidate against dollar and yen today and it looks like deeper retreat would be seen in near term. German ZEW economic sentiment improved more than expected to -18.2 in September, the first rise since April. Current situation component, though, dropped to 12.6 versus expectation of 18. Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment also improved to -3.8 comparing to expectation of -16.3. While improvements were shown, the indices stayed in negative territory which still points to to stagnation in German economy. ZEW president Wolfgang Franz also warned that the "debt crisis is not solved yet and the risks for economic activity remain" even though ECB just announced the much welcomed OMT earlier this month. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3123 (R1) 1.3164; More..... A temporary top should be in place at 1.3171 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3149. Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first for consolidation. While deeper retreat might be seen, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.2816 support (38.2% retracement of 1.2255 to 1.3171) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.3171 should pave the way to 1.3486 key resistance, which is close to 50% retracement level. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Minutes Unveiled Further Rate Cut PossibleAs hopes of another rate cut in the RBA in October loomed, the market has paid a lot of attention to the September RBA minutes. At the minutes, policymakers acknowledged that Australia's economic growth was still at trend. However, the decline in commodity prices and the slowdown in Chinese growth have weighed on the pace of recovery. On the monetary stance, the RBA believed that previous rate cuts have been effective but affirmed that further easing would be implemented if the economic conditions worsen. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to move lower today after retreating from 4-month high of 1.3172 formed yesterday, Spanish uncertainty was being used as an excuse to liquidate recent long positions, bids at 1.3080 and stops below 1.3075 were cleared, however, more buying interests are tipped at 1.3020-30 with more stop orders building up below 1.2990-00. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3100-10 and also from 1.3130 up to 1.3150, more selling interests are tipped at 1.3165-75 with stops placed above 1.3180 barrier, a layer of defensive offers are still seen ahead of next barrier at 1.3200 with more buy stop orders above there but fresh offers should emerge further out at 1.3240-50. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6320Although the British pound resumed recent rise to 1.6273 yesterday and near term upside bias remains for gain towards previous resistance at 1.6304, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6320-25 and reckon 1.6350-55 would hold from here, bring retreat later. Below 1.6210-15 would suggest a minor top is possibly formed and bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.6165) but previous resistance at 1.6132 should limit downside. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 103.40Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 103.85, the subsequent sharp retreat suggests a temporary top is possibly formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of 102.59 support, break there would add credence to this view and correction to 102.00, then 101.50 would follow, however, reckon 101.00-10 would contain weakness and bring another rise later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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