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Daily Report: Dollar Sold off on Risk Appetite, Moody's Warning, Dollar Index Broke 80Risk rally resumed on optimism that additional easing from US and China, following the OMT announcement from ECB last week. DOW breached 2012 high of 13338 overnight even though it didn't manage to close above there yet. Asian equities are broadly higher with Nikkei up over 130 pts while HK HSI is up over 180 pts at the time of writing. Dollar was additionally weighed down by Moody's warning and faces tremendous selling pressure against other major currencies. Dollar index broke 80 psychological level and is still on course to 78.60 support level next. Main focus today will be on German court's ruling on ESM but markets could probably look beyond it to tomorrow's FOMC meeting. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0354; (P) 1.0402; (R1) 1.0480; More... AUD/USD jumped to as high as 1.0488 so far today and broke mentioned 61.8% retracement of 1.0612 to 1.0165 at 1.0441. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current rally should target 1.0612 resistance next. We'd be cautious on topping signal there. On the downside, below 1.0426 minor support will turn bias neutral first. And, break of 1.0322 minor support will now indicate that such rebound is finished and flip bias back to the downside for retesting 1.0165 support. |
| Special Report |
Alan Bollard To Leave RBNZ Policy Rate Unchanged At 2.5%At his last statement as the RBNZ governor, Alan Bullard would likely leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, a status quo since March 2011. Domestic development since the July meeting has been largely positive with consumer spending picking up and reconstruction in Christchurch gaining momentum. Yet, these encouraging developments were against the lingering weakness in the global economic outlook. The meeting statement should remain largely the same the previous one. Graeme Wheeler will be the next RBNZ governor. Currently, we do not expect significant change in the direction of the central bank's stance under Wheeler's leadership although the RBNZ adopts a single decision maker (by the governor) rather than a committee for monetary policy decisions. China Watch: August Data Suggested China Needs More Easing from PBOCChina's macroeconomic data released for August indicated that growth in the world's second largest economy continued to slow. However, the government is trapped in a dilemma of whether to implement monetary easing as inflation rebounded during the month. Widening in trade surplus should not trigger a surge in RMB as China's other data remained sluggish. Yet, depreciation should also be limited as the US presidential election approaches. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to move higher after yesterday's resumption of upmove but offers are still noted at 1.2890-00 (for protection of option barrier at 1.2900) with buy stop orders expected on break of this level, more selling interests from model funds are reported at 1.2930-35 and also at 1.2950-60. On the downside, bids from Asian names are located at 1.2845-55 with light stops placed below 1.2835-40 but fresh demand from various parties are located at 1.2800-10 and further out at 1.2760-70 with bigger stops building up below 1.2750-55. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6010As cable has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday’s rally to 1.6085, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.6100-05 and possibly previous resistance at 1.6124 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6150-60 and price should falter below 1.6175-80, risk from there is seen for another retreat later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.55Yesterday’s selloff below 77.90 previous support and subsequent fall to 77.71 suggest recent decline may extend weakness to previous chart support at 77.65, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 77.50 and risk from there is seen for a corrective rebound to take place later. Above previous support at 78.02 would bring test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 78.25), then Monday’s high of 78.34 but break of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 78.52) is needed to confirm. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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