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Mid-Day Report: Euro Jumps as German Auction Showed Reduced Demand for SafetyGermany's 10 year bond auction was not very well received today. Only EUR 3.61b in 10 year bonds were sold, comparing to maximum target of EUR 5b. Yield was at 1.42%, unchanged from prior auction in early August. Nonetheless, markets saw the weak demand as a vote on confidence that ECB will act, and thus, reducing the need for safe assets. Separately, UK sold GBP 1.75b in 30 year bonds today. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 1.52 times comparing to 2.22 times at prior auction in May. Yield was at 2.95% comparing to prior 3.224%. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is still limited below last week's high of 1.2637. We stay near term bullish in the pair even though it's uncertain whether traders would have the patience to wait for ECB press conference before jumping in. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5856; (P) 1.5877; (R1) 1.5905; More... GBP/USD's break of 1.5912 resistance indicates that recent rebound from 1.5268 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside and current rise should extend towards upper trend line resistance (now at 1.6140) next. On the downside, break of 1.5753 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of retreat. |
| Special Reports |
Investors Awaiting Details For ECB Bond Purchase Program Likely DisappointedThe market was thrilled after news reported that ECB President Draghi has told the European Parliament that the central bank could buy government bonds with maturities of up to 3 years from debt-ridden countries in the Eurozone such that their borrowing costs would be lower. The news also drove expectations that more details of the asset purchase program would be announced after the ECB meeting due on September 6. Given further deterioration in economic outlook in the Eurozone, we expect policymakers would lower the main refinancing rate by -25 bps and revise down projections of the economic outlook. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.2503, the single currency found indicated decent demand just above 1.2500 and has rallied on leaked details of ECB bond-buying program, the pair quickly jumped above 1.2600 (offers at 1.2550, 1.2570 and 1.2600 were filled, mixture of offers and stops at 1.2630-40 is now in focus, more sizeable stops are tipped above 1.2650 option barrier. On the downside, some bids by short-term specs are reported at 1.2570-80 and also at 1.2540-50 with stops building up below 1.2530 as well as 1.2500, more sell stop orders are located below 1.2490, 1.2480 and also 1.2470-75 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.2595Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.2503, current rally has dampened our bearishness and yesterday’s day of 1.2629 needs to hold to retain our consolidative view, bring another decline later, a break of said support would confirm top has been formed at 1.2637 last week, bring test of previous support at 1.2487 but below there is needed to add credence to this view, then correction of recent upmove to 1.2466 would follow, however, reckon support at 1.2431 would hold. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0280As aussie has fallen again after yesterday’s brief bounce to 1.0287, suggesting recent decline from 1.0615 top is still in progress and further weakness towards 1.0100-10 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.0050 and risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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