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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
| Calendar | Elliott Wave Trades | Markets Volatility | Pivot Points | Heat Map | Daily Fundamentals |
| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Focus Turns to SNB, and then FOMCMarkets are generally steady today as traders are cautious ahead of FOMC meeting. Risk markets have rallied much recently on speculation of QE3 from Fed with DOW and S&P 500 making new 2012 high already. But buying momentum is not strong this week as S&P 500 struggles around 1440 while DOW hovered around prior high of 13338. On the other hand, in the FX markets, dollar's selloff have extended this week on optimism that Eurozone is finally solving the debt crisis. Some volatility would likely be seen today. But the overall technical outlook favors further downside in the greenback in medium term no matter what the results of today's FOMC meeting are. But which currency would outperform would depends on how risk markets respond to Fed. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9340; (P) 0.9372; (R1) 0.9403; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside and current decline from 0.9971 is expected to continue through 0.9 psychological level to 0.8930 key support. On the upside, above 0.9432 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidation. But break of 0.9580 is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish even in case of recovery. |
| Special Report |
RBNZ Left OCT Unchanged, First Rate Hike DelayedThe final RBNZ statement from Governor Alan Bollard was largely unchanged from July’s. Yet, after looking into details, this one delivered a more dovish message than the previous one. The central bank left the OCR unchanged at 2.5% but pushed backward the timing of the first rate hike to end of 2013, from mid-2013. Global economic headwinds would eventually affect domestic developments while monetary easing from other major central banks has sent the NZD higher and higher. The market has now priced in a 50% of rate cut from current level next year. Fed to Announce QE3, Downgrade Economic Projections and Extend Low Rate PolicyWe expect the FOMC will make a number of adjustments in its monetary stance, economic assessment and statement language in the September meeting. Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium raised hopes of further Fed easing. Disappointments in the August employment report due last Friday intensified speculations that the Fed would announce QE3 in as soon as the upcoming meeting. Our bottom-line is that the Fed would push backward the earliest data of the first rate hike, deliver a more dovish tone in the statement and lower economic projections. We tend to expect announcement of QE3 at this meeting. Otherwise, the Chairman should likely state that further quantitative easing would be implemented soon. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rallied to 1.2937 yesterday before running into heavy offers from funds and selling interests from them are still noted from 1.2930 up to 1.2950 (related to 1.2950 barrier), however, buy stop orders are tipped above 1.2950 and fresh offers should emerge from 1.2970 up to 1.2990 (related to next barrier at 1.3000). On the downside, bids from various parties are still seen from 1.2880 down to 1.2850 with light stops placed below 1.2845 and 1.2815 (large) but fresh demand from Asian and Middle East names are expected at 1.2800 and further out at 1.2760-70 with bigger stops building up below 1.2750-55. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6030As cable has maintained a firm undertone after surging to 1.6132 yesterday’s suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain to 1.6150 and possibly 1.6170-75 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below 1.6200-10, risk from there is seen for another retreat later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2820Although euro has continued to trade with a firm undertone and recent upmove may extend gain to 1.2950, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2975-80 and price should falter below psychological resistance at 1.3000, risk from there is seen for a much-needed correction to take place later today or tomorrow. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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