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Mid-Day Report: Risk Markets Weaken after ISM DisappointmentAfter being quite for most of the day, risk markets are responding negatively to weaker than expected ISM manufacturing report from US. Yen, and to a less extent, dollar, strengthen mildly on risk aversion. Aussie and Canadian dollar both hit on the negative market sentiments. Nonetheless, European majors are generally staying in range so far. The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dripped to 49.6 in August and stayed below 50 for the third consecutive months. Looking at the details, production, new orders and employment component deteriorated while inventories rose. Note that employment component dropped further from 52.0 to 51.6, suggesting it's barely growing and softened further. also released from US, constructions pending dropped -0.9% mom in July. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2564; (P) 1.2587 (R1) 1.2616; More..... With 1.2465 minor support intact, EUR/USD's rebound from 1.2042 is still going to continue to 1.2747 (50% retracement of 1.3486 to 1.2042 at 1.2764) next. On the downside, though, break of 1.2465 minor support will suggest short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, bias will be flipped back to the downside for 1.2255 support and below. |
| Special Reports |
Investors Awaiting Details For ECB Bond Purchase Program Likely DisappointedThe market was thrilled after news reported that ECB President Draghi has told the European Parliament that the central bank could buy government bonds with maturities of up to 3 years from debt-ridden countries in the Eurozone such that their borrowing costs would be lower. The news also drove expectations that more details of the asset purchase program would be announced after the ECB meeting due on September 6. Given further deterioration in economic outlook in the Eurozone, we expect policymakers would lower the main refinancing rate by -25 bps and revise down projections of the economic outlook. RBA Slightly More Hawkish On Domestic DevelopmentsAs widely expected by the market, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in September. While acknowledging that risks to global economic outlook skewed to the downside, there were no hints on when another rate cut would be adopted. The meeting statement was largely the same as the previous one, but it delivered slightly more hawkish comments about domestic economic developments. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has rebounded again this morning in Asia and stops above 1.2610 as well as 1.2625 were triggered, however, offers are still noted at 1.2630-35 and option defensive offers together with stops are tipped in the area of 1.2645-55 (related to 1.2650 barrier) but more selling interests from funds and European names are reported at 1.2660 and 1.2680. On the downside, bids are located at 1.2600 and also at 1.2570-80 with stops building up below 1.2555-60 as well as 1.2540, however, fresh demand from Asian and Middle East names should emerge around 1.2500-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9600Despite intra-day initial brief fall to 0.9507, as the greenback has staged a strong rebound after holding above last week’s low at 0.9504, retaining our view that further choppy consolidation would be seen and mild upside bias remains for retracement to 0.9590-00, however, resistance at 0.9617 should cap upside, bring another decline. A break of said support is needed to extend recent fall from 0.9972 top to 0.9470, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0350Despite intra-day marginal fall to 1.0224, lack of follow through selling suggests consolidation would be seen and a corrective bounce to 1.0300 is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.0355 (Friday’s high), bring another decline later. A firm breach of said support would extend the decline from temporary top of 1.0615 for a retracement of early upmove to 1.0200, then 1.0175-80 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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