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Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rally after Germany Court Ruled in Favor of ESMEuro strengths today after Germany's Constitutional Court rejected the motion to block ESM as widely expected. The news was welcomed by all European officials and Luxembourg prime minister Juncker said that he will convene the first meeting board of directors of ESM on October 8. Nonetheless, the court also requested that Germany's liability thought he EUR 500b ESM must be capped at agreed EUR 190b. And, "the Federal Republic of Germany must express that it does not wish to be bound by the ESM Treaty in its entirety if the reservations made by it should prove to be ineffective. Today's ruling was a preliminary one and full review will be considered together with ECB's planned OMT and would be completed in December. But markets don't expect the court to make a u-turn. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2782; (P) 1.2826 (R1) 1.2899; More..... EUR/USD's rally extends to as high as 1.2936 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.3 psychological level first. Current rally fro 1.2042 is expected to extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.2042 at 1.3149 next. On the downside, below 1.2815 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.2501 support and bring another rally. |
| Special Report |
Alan Bollard To Leave RBNZ Policy Rate Unchanged At 2.5%At his last statement as the RBNZ governor, Alan Bullard would likely leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, a status quo since March 2011. Domestic development since the July meeting has been largely positive with consumer spending picking up and reconstruction in Christchurch gaining momentum. Yet, these encouraging developments were against the lingering weakness in the global economic outlook. The meeting statement should remain largely the same the previous one. Graeme Wheeler will be the next RBNZ governor. Currently, we do not expect significant change in the direction of the central bank's stance under Wheeler's leadership although the RBNZ adopts a single decision maker (by the governor) rather than a committee for monetary policy decisions. China Watch: August Data Suggested China Needs More Easing from PBOCChina's macroeconomic data released for August indicated that growth in the world's second largest economy continued to slow. However, the government is trapped in a dilemma of whether to implement monetary easing as inflation rebounded during the month. Widening in trade surplus should not trigger a surge in RMB as China's other data remained sluggish. Yet, depreciation should also be limited as the US presidential election approaches. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency extended its way north and barrier at 1.2900 together with stops at 1.2915 and 1.2935 were tripped, however, defensive offers ahead of next barrier at 1.2950 capped euro's upside so far and the pair has eased on some profit-taking, more buy stop orders are tipped above 1.2950 but fresh offers should emerge from 1.2970 up to 1.2990 (related to next barrier at 1.3000). On the downside, bids from various parties are still seen at 1.2845-55 with light stops placed below 1.2815 but fresh demand from Asian and Middle East names are expected at 1.2800 and further out at 1.2760-70 with bigger stops building up below 1.2750-55. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6030As cable has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.6132, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and test of 1.6065-66 (intra-day support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5960-1.6132), however, renewed buying interests should emerge around 1.6034-37 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5882-1.6132), bring another rise. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove to 1.6150, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6170-75 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 99.20The single currency only retreated to 99.54 before finding support there and price has rebounded, however, as long as last week’s high of 100.43 holds, further consolidation would be seen and another retreat to said support cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interests should emerge around previous resistance at 99.19 and bring another rise. Above said resistance would extend the upmove from recent low of 94.12 to 100.85-90, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 101.20-30 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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