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Daily Report: Strong Risk Rally on ECB, Non-Farm Payroll NextRisk appetite was given a strong boost overnight by ECB Draghi's bond buying plan as well as solid economic data from US. S&P 500 soared to close at four year high of 1432 and that's followed by broad based rally in Asian equities. Aussie has so far been the biggest winner and enjoyed strong rebound against dollar and euro. Canadian dollar also followed risk rally but strength was slightly weaker than Aussie as limited crude oil's pull back. While dollar was pressured, the Japanese yen was even weaker as yen crosses were given additional boost from strong rebound in US treasury yields. Focus will now turn to non-farm payroll report from US today for the needed fuel for to extend the risk rally. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 124.88; (P) 125.38; (R1) 126.14; More... GBP/JPY rose to as high as 125.88 so far the the break of 125.82 resistance confirmed resumption of whole rebound from 118.82. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 118.82 to 125.82 from 120.82 at 127.82 next. On the downside, break of 123.69 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish even in case of retreat. |
| Special Reports |
ECB Unveils More Details about Outright Monetary TransactionsECB leaves main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75%, compared with our expectation of a rate cut of -25 bps. Policymakers believed that this is not an appropriate time to lower interests as economic weakness had been anticipated. Meanwhile, President Draghi stated at the press conference that officials have basically agreed on unlimited bond purchase program. Despite objected by a member, the program is expected to be able to help "address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro". According to Draghi, purchases would be fully sterilized, suggesting that the program would not trigger inflation pressure. The ECB also affirmed that purchases would not have seniority. BOC Leaves Policy Rate at 1%, Reaffirming the Next Monetary Decision Would be Rate HikeAs expected the BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 1% in September. Moreover, policymakers indicated for the 4th time that some sort of stimulus may be withdrawn if "the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed". Few surprises were delivered in the accompanying statement despite some disappointments in the central bank's assessment on the domestic economic developments. Policymakers described inflation as "softer than expected in recent months" while growth is "decelerating somewhat more quickly than expected". |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: After finding renewed buying interests at 1.2562 yesterday, the single currency has resumed recent upmove, stops above 1.2675 barrier were just tripped, however, option defensive sell orders are still noted ahead of next barrier at 1.2700 with more stops placed above 1.2700-10 and further out at 1.2750. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2610-20 with some stops building up below 1.2600 and 1.2580 but mixture of bids and stops in good size is tipped at 1.2550-60 with even bigger stops planted below 1.2500. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5890Despite yesterday’s retreat to 1.5882, as the British pound found renewed buying interests just above the Ichimoku cloud and has rallied again in tandem with euro, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and gain to 1.5975-80, then psychological resistance at 1.6000 would be seen, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6020-25 (1.236 times projection of 1.5269-1.5778 measuring from 1.5393) and reckon 1.6050 would hold from here. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.50Yesterday’s rally above indicated resistance at 78.85 to 79.04 adds credence to our view that low has been formed at 78.19 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for correction of the decline from 79.66 to 79.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 79.66-78.16) and then towards resistance at 79.38, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon upside would be limited to next resistance at 79.66 and price should falter below 79.97-80.00 level. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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