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Mid-Day Report: Mixed US Data Provided No Inspiration, Markets Stay in Tight RangeMarkets continue to stay in tight range in early US session. Data from US saw durable goods orders dropped sharply by -13.2% in August versus expectation of -5%. Ex-transport orders failed to grow and contracted -1.3% versus consensus of 0.3% rise. The data showed downward pressure in the industrial sector, reflecting uncertainties in Europe and slowdown in China. Nonetheless, initial jobless claims posted pleasant surprise and dripped to 359k in the week ended September 22, lowest level since July. Continuing claims dropped -4k to 3.27m in the week ended September 15. While the overall numbers remained elevated, the data did suggest that the labor market is not getting worse. Q2 GDP was revised down to 1.3% annualized, below expectation of 1.7%. Pending home sales dropped -2.6% mom in August. After all, the data provided little inspiration to the markets so far. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.57; (P) 77.74; (R1) 77.89; More... USD/JPY remains soft today and deeper decline could be seen. But note again that we're slightly favoring the bullish case that fall from 84.17 is finished at 77.13 already. Hence, downside of the current retreat should be contained well above 77.13 and bring rebound. Above 77.36 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 79.22 first. Break will target 80.61 resistance (50% retracement of 84.17 to 77.13 at 80.65). |
| Special Reports |
Tensions Between China And Japan This Time May Hurt Trades More Seriously Than 2005Tensions between China and Japan over the inhabited Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands intensified after the Japanese government announced on September 11 that it would nationalize three of the island chain by purchasing them from the Kurihara family for 2.05B yen. The Chinese government was furious about the issue and declared that the islands have been under Chinese territory since ancient times and China would do anything to protect it sovereignty. Reports also showed that nationalists protested on streets and destroyed shops owned by Japanese in China. Last week, China's Vice President Xi Jinping spoke after weeks' of disappearance about the latest Sino-Japanese conflict. He said that Japan's 'purchase' of the islands was a farce and 'Japan should rein in its behavior and stop any words and acts that undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity'. Despite heightened tensions, we believe that military conflicts are unlikely. Yet, deterioration of relationship between the world's second and third largest economies in the period of global economic turmoil would inevitably have impacts on the economic developments in the East Asian region, and the world as a whole. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British continued to move higher in London on solid UK data, the indicated buy orders at 1.6160 contained cable's retreat and the pair cleared offers at 1.6205-10 but selling interests from UK clearer and U.S. names are still noted at 1.6250-60 with buy stop orders building up above 1.6270, followed by larger sell orders tipped from 1.6280 up to 1.6300. On the downside, buy orders are raised again to 1.6190-00 and also at 1.6160-70 with stops building up below there but bids are still seen above stops at 1.6130, mixture of bids (from Middle East and sovereign names) and stops remains at 1.6100-10, more buying interests from same parties should emerge around 1.6075-85 with bigger stops expected below 1.6070. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.2805As the single currency has retreated again after meeting renewed selling interests around the Ichimoku cloud bottom, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the decline from 1.3172 to extend weakness to 1.2812-17, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2800 and risk from there is seen for a strong rebound to take place later. Above intra-day resistance at 1.2900 would signal low is possibly formed and bring test of yesterday’s high of 1.2913 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0460As aussie has rebounded after falling to 1.0328 yesterday (just held above previous support at 1.0323), suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to this week’s high of 1.0462 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0511-19 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0625-1.0328 and previous resistance) would hold, bring another decline later. A break of said support area at 1.0323-28 would extend the decline from 1.0625 top to 1.0300 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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