Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-25-12 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Loss Limited, Dollar Back Under Pressure

Concern over the legality of ECB's Outright Monetary Transactions bond buying program was the main theme today and pressured the common currency. Though, selloff in Euro was so far quite shallow. Spanish 10 year yield was slightly higher at 5.729% at the time of writing and remains comfortably below 6% level. Stock markets were mixed in general hovering between gains and losses. Fresh selling in dollar is seen in early US session against European majors. Canadian dollar also strengthens a bit after better than expected retail sales data. There is no clear sign of down trend resumption in dollar yet but we don't expect the current consolidative trading in dollar pairs to last much longer.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9320; (P) 0.9355; (R1) 0.9392; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Below 0.9284 minor support will suggest that choppy recovery from 0.9238 is finished and should send USD/CHF through 0.9238 low. Decline from 0.9971 is still in progress and would target 0.8930 key support next. On the upside, above 0.9391 will bring another recovery but upside should be limited by 0.9502 support turned resistance, (38.2% retracement of 0.9971 to 0.9238 at 0.9518) and bring fall resumption eventually.

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Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Y/Y Aug -0.30% -0.30% -0.20% -0.30%
02:00 CNY Conference Board Leading Index Aug 1.70% 0.70% 0.60%
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Oct 5.9 5.9 5.9
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Aug 1.03 1.55 1.48
08:30 GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Aug 30.5K 28.1K 28.4K 28.8K
12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.70% 0.20% -0.40%
12:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jul 0.40% 0.20% -0.40%
13:00 USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Jul 1.20% 1.10% 0.50%
14:00 USD Consumer Confidence Sep 70.3 63.2 60.6
14:00 USD House Price Index M/M Jul 0.20% 0.70% 0.70%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Despite falling marginally to 1.2888, the single currency has rebounded in New York morning after the release of weaker-than-expected U.S. data, indicated offers at 1.2950-60 and stops above there were cleared but more selling interests should emerge around the region of 1.2980-00 with stops building up above 1.3010 and bigger offers are located at 1.3040-50, more stops are expected above there and further out at 1.3090-00. On the downside, decent demand from Middle East names are tipped at 1.2890-00 with some stops placed below 1.2870-80, more stops are tipped below 1.2850 (some bids above) but fresh demand should emerge around 1.2820-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Turn short at 0.9360

Despite intra-day rebound to 0.9385, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.9392 (yesterday’s high), suggesting a top is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for but break of support at 0.9286 is needed to confirm and suggest the rebound from 0.9240 has ended, bring weakness to 0.9255-60, below there would add credence to this view, then retest of 0.9240 would follow.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0510

Despite early rebound to 1.0519, the subsequent retreat suggests further consolidation below 1.0625 top would be seen and said resistance at 1.0519 should limit upside, bring another decline, below last week’s low of 1.0367 would revive bearishness an extend the fall from 1.0625 top for a deeper correction of the rise from 1.0167 to previous support at 1.0323 and possibly 1.0300, owever, reckon 1.0250-60 would hold from here due to near term oversold condition and bring another rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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