Thursday, December 8, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-8-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Hammered as ECB Draghi Cool of Bond Buying after Rate Cut

Risk appetite was given a lift by ECB's expected rate cut but then reversed after President Draghi resisted from signalling expansion of the bond purchase program. The benchmark interest rate was lowered for the second consecutive months, by 25bps back to 1.00% as widely expected. Draghi pledged to offer unlimited cash to banks in 36-month loans and loosened collateral rules. Also, the banks' reserve ratios was lowered from 2% to 1%. However, Draghi clarified "misinterpretation" of his comments about the link between the "fiscal compact" and more bond buying. He denied the "implicit meaning" and indicated that no major bond purchase program was planned . Euro is sharply lower after the press conference.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 103.79; (P) 104.15; (R1) 104.54; More

EUR/JPY as low as 103.00 in early US session and the break of 103.33 minor support indicates that recovery from 102.48 has finished at 105.54 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 102.48 first. Break will resume whole decline from 111.57 and should target a test on 100.74 low. On the upside, though, above 104.51 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and extend the recovery from 102.48 instead.

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RBNZ On Hold. Growth Forecasts Down Amid Highly Uncertain Outlook

The RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in December and policymakers delivered a more downbeat tone in the accompanying statement. The overhang in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the weakter-than-expected domestic data in recent month signaled that risks are on the downside for the economic outlook New Zealand. While the chance of a rate hike is unlikely at least until the second half of next year, a rate in increasingly possible in coming months.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Oct 0.52T 0.54T 1.19T
00:30 AUD Employment Change Nov -6.3K 10.0K 10.1K 16.8K
00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Nov 5.30% 5.20% 5.20%
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 275B 275B 275B
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.25%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Nov 181K 200.0K 207.6K
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Oct 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 381K 396K 402K
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Oct 1.6% 0.30% -0.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -10B -1B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the ECB lowered interest rates as expected by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the single currency has rebounded ahead of U.S. opening probably due to usual buy on rumors sell on fact reaction, however, further sideways trading is expected as traders still await the key event of the week – EU summit on Friday. At the moment, offers are still noted from 1.3430 up to 1.3450 with some stops tipped above 1.3455-60, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.3480-90 with more stops seen above 1.3500. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3375-80 and also at 1.3350-55 with stops building up below 1.3350 and also 1.3320-30 (large). A large option at 1.3400 is going to expire at New York cut today which may keep price steady for the time being.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9190

As the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance around the Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top, retaining our view that further consolidation below 0.9299 (this week’s high) would take place and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness towards 0.9190, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8590

Current breach of indicated support at 0.8518-21 adds credence to our view that the rebound from 0.8486 has ended at 0.8665 earlier and bearishness remains for recent decline from 0.9084 to resume, break of said support at 0.8486 would extend weakness to 0.8450, however, loss of momentum should limit downside and reckon 0.8400 would hold. We are keeping our bearish count that the wave 2 is unfolding as a complex correction

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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