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Daily Report: Euro Maintains Gain Ahead of ECB 3 Year LTROEuro rise on broad based risk appetite and is trading back above 1.31 against dollar as markets are awaiting ECB's new 3-year LTRO operation today. Markets are expecting that banks would draw as much as EUR 300b of funds from ECB, at ultra low rate of 1%, the bank's benchmark rates. ECB President Draghi expected that there will be "very significant funding constraints" for 2012. This was echoed by Vice President Constancio who expected higher refinancing needs next. And thus, Constancio expected stronger demand in today's LTRO operation. Recent peripheral bond auctions have been very successful, especially in Spain as institutions are prepared to draw ECB's cheap money to invest in peripheral bonds, which in turn are also covered by ECB's relaxed collateral rules. While EUR/USD is kept below 1.32 key near term resistance level, development elsewhere, in particular in stocks and commodity currencies, argue that risk appetite is back for Santa Claus rally. Hence, we'd likely seen some additional strength in EUR/USD before the week closes for holiday. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2993; (P) 1.3039 (R1) 1.3082; More. EUR/USD's recovery from 1.2946 is still in progress and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA for the moment. Further rise could be seen but note that as long as 1.3212 support turned resistance intact, near term outlook remains bearish and recent decline is still in favor to continue. Below 1.2946 will target 1.2873 support first. However, break of 1.3212 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2946 and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3538 resistance and above. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated SharplyThe RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rebounded again this morning on continued short-covering ahead of Christmas holiday and although offers are reported at 1.3130-40, stops above 1.3150 are now in focus, more stops are reported at 1.3165-70 and further out at 1.3200. On the downside, bids from various parties (including real money accounts, sovereign names and hedge funds) are lined up from 1.3080 down to 1.3050 with more buy orders likely to emerge around 1.3000-10, stops are placed further out below 1.3000 and 1.2980 (large). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5590As cable has eased after yesterday’s rally to 1.5700, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.5620-30 would be seen, however, downside should be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5604) and renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5590, bring another rally later. Above said resistance would extend the rise from 1.5408 to 1.5725/35, however, break there is needed to signal the correction from 1.5780 has ended Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9340Yesterday’s selloff after breaking indicated support at 0.9343-48 (now turned into resistance) signals the fall from 0.9549 top is still in progress for further fall to 0.9250 and possibly to 0.9220, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.9200 and reckon previous support at 0.9176-82 would hold from here, bring another rebound later this week. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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