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Daily Report: Markets Steady, EUR/USD Heading Back to 1.30Markets are generally steady in Asian session today. Risk appetite failed to sustain overnight as traders refused to commit to their positions ahead of thin holiday trading period. Weak home sales data and Fitch's update report on US fiscal projections also weighed down sentiments a bit. EUR/USD is back below 1.31 level again and judging from these few days price actions, there selloff isn't over yet and we'll more likely seen another break 1.30 again, probably as markets return from holiday next week. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2993; (P) 1.3039 (R1) 1.3082; More. Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment and more consolidative trading could be seen in range of 1.2946/3197. But after all, with 1.3212 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of bottoming and fall from 1.4246 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.2946 will confirm decline resumption for 1.2873 support first. However, break of 1.3212 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2946 and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3538 resistance and above. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Votes Unanimously To Leave Rates And Asset Purchases UnchangedThe BOE minutes indicated that policymakers voted unanimously in December to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound. While all of them believed the current global and domestic economic situations did not warrant for monetary easing, they were split on the implications of the November inflation report. While some believed further expansion of the asset buying program would be inevitable, others viewed that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced in the medium-term. RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated SharplyThe RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rallied to as high as 1.3199 yesterday, euro quick plunged from there on typical ‘buy on rumor sell on fact' scenario and S&P's downgrading of Hungary, however, the pair found good support at 1.3025 and has recovered, suggesting consolidation would take place in the near term. At the moment, offers are reported at 1.3100-10 and further out at 1.3150 with mixture of offers and stops in good size located at 1.3195-05. On the downside, decent demand is still seen at 1.3020-25 and also 1.3000 with stops building up below both levels but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.2980 and 1.2940. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3125Despite yesterday’s brief rise to 1.3199, the subsequent selloff to 1.3025 suggests top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.3000, however, only break of indicated support at 1.2983 would revive our bearish view that correction from 1.2945 low has ended at 1.3199 and bring retest of this level later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.30Although the greenback found renewed buying interest above previous support at 77.62 and staged a rebound from yesterday’s low of 77.68, a sustained breach of this week’s high at 78.18 is needed to extend the rise from 77.13 to indicated resistance at 78.29 but only break of latter level would retain bullishness and confirm our view that correction from 79.55 has ended and bring further gain to 78.50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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