Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-13-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovered Mildly on Bill Auctions and German ZEW, Undone by Poor US Retail Sales

Risk sentiments was lifted briefly earlier today by solid bills auction in Eurozone and upside surprise in German ZEW. However, dollar regains strength on weaker than expected retail sales data from US. Headline sales rose 0.2% in November versus expectation of 0.6%. Ex-auto sales also missed expectation and rose 0.2% only, versus consensus of 0.4%. EUR/USD is held well below minor resistance of 1.3281 and thus, more downside is still in favor. Meanwhile the common currency is still soft against other major currencies despite mild recovery.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3106; (P) 1.3243 (R1) 1.3324; More.

With 1.3281 minor resistance intact, intraday bias in EUR?USD remains on the downside for 1.3145 support. Break will confirm resumption of the whole down trend from 1.4939 and should target 1.2873 support next. On the upside, above 1.3281 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.3538 resistance and bring another fall.

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Special Report

FED to Stay on the Sideline in December. Discussion on Improving Communication to Continue

The December FOMC meeting will likely be a non-event. With operation twist started and recent economic data improved, policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments. The meeting would again focus on tools to improving communication with the market. However, we do not expect any material outcome at least until January when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference and when the latest economic projections are released.

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SNB May Raise EURCHF Ceiling, Send Interest Rate To Negative

Swiss franc remained fragile, hovering within a narrow trading range of 1.22-1.24, amid speculations that the SNB would intervene against appreciation of the currency. Economic growth and inflation have moderated since the last meeting. Together with persistent risks of sovereign crisis in the Eurozone, policymakers would likely delivered a rather downbeat statement, warning against further deterioration in domestic and global economic prospects.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Oct 0.60% 0.40% -0.70%
00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Nov -17.00% -25.00% -24.00%
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Nov 2 2
06:45 CHF SECO December 2011 Economic Forecasts
09:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Oct -0.40% -0.90% -1.40%
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Nov 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Nov 4.80% 4.80% 5.00%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Nov 3.20% 3.30% 3.40%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Nov 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Nov 5.20% 5.10% 5.40%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Dec 26.8 31 34.2
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec -53.8 -55.8 -55.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Dec -54.1 -60.3 -59.1
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Nov 0.20% 0.60% 0.50%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Nov 0.20% 0.40% 0.60%
15:00 USD Business Inventories Oct 0.50% 0.00%
19:15 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency popped to an intra-day high of 1.3237 briefly on rumors that German parliament will support the use of Bundesbank funds for the IMF, offers at 1.3220-30 were cleared, however, the pair quickly retreated back down in part due to no confirmation. At the moment, bids from a U.S. big name is reported at 1.3160-70 for protection of 1.3150 option barrier and stops remain below this level with next barrier tipped further out at 1.3100. On the upside, more selling interest is located at 1.3250 with stops building up above 1.3290-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5630

Despite intra-day brief retreat to 1.5566, lack of follow through selling and current rebound suggest consolidation would be seen, however, reckon intra-day high of 1.5629 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of 1.5537 support would extend the fall from 1.5780 top to 1.5500 but it is necessary to see a breach of 1.5469 support to signal the rebound from 1.5423 has indeed ended

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Sell at 103.55

The single currency fell sharply yesterday and broke below support at 103.00, adding credence to our bearish view and a retest of previous low at 102.50 would be seen, break there would extend the decline from 111.57 (a leg top) to 102.00 and possibly towards 101.50/55, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 101.00 and risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later this week.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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