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Daily Report: Markets Steady after EU EcoFin Meeting Failed EUR 200b TargetEU finance ministers agreed on boosting IMF resources by EUR 150b after a three-hour conference call yesterday. The joint statement said that the fund could be provided through "bilateral loans" to IMF's general resources account. Germany will be the largest contributor providing EUR 41.5b while France will provide EUR 31.4b. Italy and Spain will contribute EUR 23.5b and EUR 14.9b respectively. The three countries that are under help from the EUR/IMF bailout, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, are not required to contribute. Four non-Eurozone EU states, Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland and Sweden also agreed to contribute to the fund. However, UK decided not to commit at this point as EU said UK would "define its contribution" in early 2012 in the framework of G20. And without UK, EU should fall short of their target of EUR 200b. The next step is for the countries to take the plan back for parliamentary approvals. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 120.59; (P) 120.84; (R1) 121.18; More Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and more sideway trading might be seen. But another fall remains mildly in favor with 121.78 minor resistance intact. Below 120.29 temporary low will target a test on 119.37 support first. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 127.30 and should target a test on 116.83 low next. On the upside, above 121.78 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish case and bring another rise to extend the recovery from 119.37. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 127.30 to 119.37 at 123.33 and bring fall resumption eventually. |
| Special Reports |
RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated SharplyThe RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012. |
| Economic Indicators Update | Don’t miss the largest investor and trader gathering in the World—The World MoneyShow Orlando, February 9-12, 2012 at the Gaylord Palms Resort. Be there as recommendations and advice are revealed for how to best position your portfolio for profit—in 2012 and beyond. Register Free Today! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: Although the greenback rebounded against the Japanese yen in part due to early announcement from Japanese government to raise limit of FX intervention to 195 trillion yen from 165 trillion yen in the 4th extra budget. The current pair still met good offers above 78.00 level and selling interest from exporters remain at 78.10-20 with stops remain above 78.30-40. On the downside, buying interest from Japanese investors is still seen at 77.60-70 with first layer of stops placed below 77.50, however, more bids are tipped further out at 77.20-30 with stops building up below 77.00-10 and 76.50 option barrier. Option expires today include 77.95 (200 mln) and 78.50 (200 mln). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9305Although dollar recovered after holding above yesterday’s low at 0.9348 and tested the Ichimoku cloud bottom, reckon indicated resistance at 0.9415 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for the sharp retreat from temporary top of 0.9549 to bring retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 0.9343, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above previous resistance at 0.9291-99 and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3130As the single currency has traded narrowly, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce to 1.3050 and 1.3084 (last Friday’s high) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3130-35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3434-1.2945), bring another decline later. A drop below support at 1.2983 would signal the correction from last week’s low of 1.2945 has possibly ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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