Thursday, December 15, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-15-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Swiss Franc Jumps as SNB Kept EUR/CHF Floor Unchanged

The SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the "minimum exchange rate" at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further. Indeed, firms in the country have been urging the central bank to further curb the currency's strength to boost exports. The SNB revised lower economic and inflation forecasts. While growth is expected to slow further, recession remains unlikely given the data released since the previous meeting.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2323; (P) 1.2351; (R1) 1.2403; More.

EUR/CHF's sharp fall today suggests that rebound from 1.2224 has finished at 1.2443 already. More importantly, recent consolidation from 1.2472 is still in progress and another falling leg has just started. Bias is mildly on the downside for 1.2224 and below. Though, strong support should be seen above 1.2121 and bring another rise to continue the sideway pattern. On the upside, sustained break of 1.2472 resistance is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, outlook will remain neutral. And, unless SNB does act, the neutral outlook shouldn't be changed.

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Special Report

SNB Leaves Interest Rates And Minimum Exchange Rate Unchanged. Warns Of Excessive Strength In Franc

The SNB left the target range for 3-month Libor at 0-0.25% and the "minimum exchange rate" at CHF1.20 per EUR. The decision was widely expected by the market but we believe the central bank might raise the limit of EURCHF in coming months should the economic outlook deteriorates further. Indeed, firms in the country have been urging the central bank to further curb the currency's strength to boost exports. The SNB revised lower economic and inflation forecasts. While growth is expected to slow further, recession remains unlikely given the data released since the previous meeting.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business Manufacturing Index Nov 45.7 46.5 46.6
23:30 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Dec 2.40% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4 -4 -2 2
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q4 4 1 1
2:30 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Dec 49 48 47.7
8:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q3 -1.40% -0.90% 3.60% 2.90%
8:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Dec A 48.1 47.5 47.9
8:30 EUR German PMI Services Dec A 52.7 50 50.3
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Dec A 46.9 46 46.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Dec A 48.3 47 47.5
9:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
9:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Nov -0.40% -0.40% 0.60% 0.90%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 0.50% 0.30% 0.90% 1.10%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M -0.40% -0.30% 0.60% 1.00%
9:30 GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y 0.70% 0.40% 0.90% 1.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Nov 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Nov 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Q/Q Q3 -0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Dec -23 -20 -19
13:30 CAD Capacity Utilization Rate Q3 78.90% 78.40%
13:30 USD PPI M/M Nov 0.20% -0.30%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Nov 5.90% 5.90%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Nov 0.20% 0.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Nov 2.80% 2.80%
13:30 USD Current Account Balance Q3 -$107.7B -$118.0B
13:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Dec 3 0.61
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 390K 381K
14:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Oct 53.4B 68.6B
14:15 USD Industrial Production Nov 0.20% 0.70%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Nov 77.90% 77.80%
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Dec 5 3.6
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -89B -20B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

CHF: The greenback dropped sharply in European session as SNB kept the 3 month Libor target rate at zero and did not change the EUR/CHF minimum rate at 1.2000, bids disappeared and stops below 0.9500, 0.9450 and 0.9430 were all triggered. At the moment, some bids are reported at 0.9370 and 0.9340-50 with more stops seen below 0.9330-40 and 0.9290. On the upside, offers are now reported at 0.9450-60 and also 0.9500 with mixture of offers and stops tipped at 0.9540-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5625

As the British pound has continued to move higher after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5433, suggesting a temporary low has been formed at 1.5408 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement to the upper Kumo (now at 1.5554) and possibly 1.5600, however, reckon 1.5625-30 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5469) would bring test of said support at 1.5433

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0135

Despite intra-day brief fall to 0.9862, as aussie has recovered from there, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and rebound to 1.0000 and 1.0050 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0130/35 and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 1.0382 top to 0.9800, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9750

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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