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Mid-Day Report: ECB Triggered Risk Appetite Fails to SustainECB allotted as much as EUR 489.19b in the three year Long Term Refinancing Operation today, surpassing market expectations of around EUR 300b. The fund was offered to 523 banks and that's the largest amount in any single operation, even the prior record of EUR 442b set at June 2009 one-year auction. Separately, EUR 29.4b of funds was allotted to 72 banks in a three-month operation. In general, it's believed that the operation was successful in adding liquidity into the financial sector and should ease tension in the credit markets. However, there are criticism that ECB are still just addressing the symptoms of the sovereign debt crisis, rather than the cause. Nonetheless, Euro responded positively to the result while European stocks jumped |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2993; (P) 1.3039 (R1) 1.3082; More. EUR/USD recovered strongly to as high as 1.3197 earlier today but failed to sustain gain and drops sharply in early US session. The pair is still bounded in range of 1.2946 and 1.3212 and thus, intraday bias remains neutral. Also, with 1.3212 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of bottoming and fall from 1.4246 is still in favor to continue. Break of 1.2946 will confirm decline resumption for 1.2873 support first. However, break of 1.3212 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed at 1.2946 and stronger rebound should then be seen to 1.3538 resistance and above. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Votes Unanimously To Leave Rates And Asset Purchases UnchangedThe BOE minutes indicated that policymakers voted unanimously in December to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound. While all of them believed the current global and domestic economic situations did not warrant for monetary easing, they were split on the implications of the November inflation report. While some believed further expansion of the asset buying program would be inevitable, others viewed that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced in the medium-term. RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated SharplyThe RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rallied in early European session on announcement that banks took up 489 bln euro at ECB’s three-year loan auction, euro ran into heavy offers ahead of 1.3200 and has retreated sharply from 1.3199 as traders realized that this measure is still very far away from settling eurozone debt crisis, bids at 1.3100 were cleared and stops below 1.3080 and 1.3050-60 were also triggered. At the moment, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.3000-10 and sizeable stops remain below 1.2980 and 1.2940. On the upside, offers are now reported at 1.3070-80 and also 1.3100 with more selling interest likely to emerge around 1.3150 and further out at 1.3200 (in good size). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5620Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.5775, as the British pound has retreated after faltering below indicated strong resistance at 1.5780, suggesting further consolidation would take place and pullback to 1.5650 would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5620 and bring another rise later. Only breach of said strong resistance at 1.5780 would extend the rise from 1.5408 low to 1.5810/15 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 101.65Current rebound suggests a temporary low has been formed at 101.05 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 102.85-90 and possibly 103.40-50, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and bring a stronger correction later to 104.00/10 but reckon resistance at 104.41-52 would hold from here, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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