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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Dips Mildly after NFP, Unemployment Rate Dropped to 8.6%Dollar dips in a knee jerk reaction to US non-farm payroll report but no follow through selling is seen at the time of writing. The NFP showed 120k expansion in the job market in November, slightly above expectation. Prior month's figure was revised up from 80k to 100k. However, unemployment unexpectedly dropped from 9.0% to 8.6%, the best reading since March 2009. The data is over positive and shows gradual improvement in the labor market. But, it's not strong enough to trigger meaningful moves in the financial markets. Meanwhile, job data from Canada disappointed and showed -18.6k contraction in November, the second consecutive month of contraction. Unemployment rate also continued its rise from September's 7.1% to 7.3% in October and 7.4% in November. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9088; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9205; More. USD/CHF dips mildly after hitting 4 hours 55 EMA but downside is contained above 0.9065 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. Though, with 0.9251 minor resistance intact, fall from 0.9330 is expected to continue further. Also, note that rise from 0.8567 should have completed at 0.9330 already, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Below 0.9065 minor support will turn bias extend the fall from 0.9330 to 0.8761/8960 support zone next. However, above 0.9251 will indicate that pull back from 0.9330 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for this resistance first. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite hitting a fresh high of the week at 1.3548, the single currency then retreated as the U.S. job reports came in better than expected (especially the unemployment rate which dropped sharply to 8.6% vs 9.0% forecast). At the moment, offers are still noted at 1.3540-50 with stops building up above there but large sell orders are expected further out at 1.3600-10 with sizeable stops placed above 1.3620. On the downside, bids are tipped at 1.3450 and also 1.3430 with stops building up below 1.3410 and 1.3390. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.30As the greenback has continued to edge higher after rebounding from this week’s low of 77.29, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 78.16, however, above this resistance is needed to signal the pullback from 78.29 has ended. Looking ahead, only a sustained breach of this previous resistance would confirm the rise from 76.58 has resumed and extend to 78.50/55 Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 103.60As the single currency has continued to edge higher after finding renewed buying at 103.35, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 102.50 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline towards 105.15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 106.78-102.50) and possibly 105.40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 108.29-102.50) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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