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Daily Report: North Korean Kim's Death Triggers Save Have Flow to DollarDollar spikes higher as the week starts on news of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il's death. Geopolitical tensions in East Asia, in particular the Korean peninsula, could increase. Risk aversion triggered broad based decline in Asian equities. Investors are uncertain on how long would Kim Jong Un (Kim Jong Il's son) stay in power, the flee of refugee from North Korea to nearby countries including South Korea and Japan and possibility of reunification of the two Koreas, which may cause instability in the region. Japan Prime Minister Noda will hold an emergency security meeting today. A crisis management team on North Korea has been set up today so as to verify the announcement of Kim's death and to gauge its implications. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.61; (P) 77.78; (R1) 77.96; More. USD/JPY spikes higher today but is still limited below 78.28 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. But rise from 76.57 is expected to resume sooner or later as long as 77.49 minor support holds. Above 78..28 will target 100% projection of 76.57 to 78.28 from 77.13 at 78.84 and above. Nonetheless, note that such rebound is viewed as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 79.52. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance below 79.52 to bring another near term fall to continue the consolidation, as the third leg. Meanwhile below 77.49 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 77.13. Break will suggest that recovery from 76.57 is finished and target this support and below. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback staged a strong rebound this morning to as high as 78.18 on news that North Korean leader Kim was dead, however, once again the pair ran into heavy offers from exporters at the indicated level at 78.15-20 and stops above 78.30-40 look quite safe for now with mixture of offers and stops tipped above 78.50-60. On the downside, bids are lined up at 77.60-70 with stops building up below 77.60 and 77.50 but more buying interest is located at 77.30 and combination of bids and stops remains at 77.00-10, sizeable stops are expected below both barriers at 77.00 and 76.50. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.30Despite intra-day brief breach of resistance at 78.16, lack of follow through buying and intra-day retreat from 78.18 suggest consolidation with mild downside bias would be seen, another corrective fall to 77.62-64 support cannot be ruled out, however, downside should be limited to 77.30 and bring another rebound later. A sustained breach of resistance at 78.29 is needed to retain bullishness and confirm our view that correction from 79.55 has ended Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3080Despite Friday’s rebound to 1.3084, the subsequent retreat after faltering below the Ichimoku cloud top suggests the correction form last week’s low of 1.2945 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, break of said support at 1.2945 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to indicated level at 1.2910 (61.8% projection of 1.4248-1.3213 measuring from 1.3550) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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