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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Firmer after Positive Jobless Claims ReportForex markets are generally staying in tight range today even though dollar is mildly firmly after solid employment data. Initial jobless claims, though, unexpectedly dropped to 364k in the week ended Dec 17, hitting the best figure since April 2008. Four week moving average of initial claims also improved to 380k, best since June 2008. Continuing claims dropped to 3.55m in the week ended Dec 10, the best number since September 2008. Though, Q3 GDP was revised lower to 1.8% annualized, comparing to expectation of being unchanged at 2.0%. Other data released today saw UK GDP revised up to 0.6% qoq in Q3. New Zealand Q3 GDP rose more than expected by 0.8% qoq. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 77.79; (P) 77.95; (R1) 78.22; More. Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. Further rise is expected to extend the rebound from 76.57. Above 78.28 will target 100% projection of 76.57 to 78.28 from 77.13 at 78.84 and above. Nonetheless, note that such rebound is viewed as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 79.52. Hence, we'd expect strong resistance below 79.52 to bring another near term fall to continue the consolidation, as the third leg. Meanwhile below 77.49 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 77.13. Break will suggest that recovery from 76.57 is finished and target this support and below. |
| Special Reports |
BOE Votes Unanimously To Leave Rates And Asset Purchases UnchangedThe BOE minutes indicated that policymakers voted unanimously in December to leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset purchase program at 275B pound. While all of them believed the current global and domestic economic situations did not warrant for monetary easing, they were split on the implications of the November inflation report. While some believed further expansion of the asset buying program would be inevitable, others viewed that the risks to inflation around the target were more balanced in the medium-term. RBA Cut Rates In December As Situation In Eurozone Deteriorated SharplyThe RBA minutes for the December meeting indicated that the rate cut in the month was mainly driven by the dire situation in the Eurozone (in November, the rate cut was due to weaker-than-expected inflation). Domestic economic situation has softened but it has not weakened to an extent that a reduction in interest rate was needed. Indeed, policymakers continued to believe that growth would be close to trend in coming few years. The central bank did not give any hint of monetary policy outlook. However, given the highly uncertain global economic outlook, especially in the Eurozone, and the moderation in inflation, further easing is likely to be seen in as soon as early 2012. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The volatile price action clearly showed current very thin market condition and despite intra-day rebound to 1.3120 on buying by Asian CBs and Middle East names (stops above 1.3100 were tripped), price ran into heavy offers there and has retreated quickly from there as Asian CBs turned seller above 1.3100 level, bids at 1.3050 were cleared and mixture of bids and stops at 1.3020-30 is now in focus but more buying interest is tipped at 1.3000 with sizeable stops placed below 1.2980 and further out at 1.2940. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5600Despite intra-day brief bounce to 1.5729, as cable has retreated after meeting renewed selling there, retaining our view that further consolidation below yesterday’s high of 1.5775 would be seen and below support at 1.5648 (yesterday’s low) would bring retracement of recent rise to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5622) but renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5600 and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold long entered at 101.65Although the single currency retreated from yesterday’s high of 102.55 to as low as 101.45, as renewed buying interest emerged there and has staged another rebound, retaining our view that further consolidation above temporary low at 101.05 would be seen and another test of said resistance is likely. A break of this level would add credence to our near term bullishness for retracement of recent decline to 102.85-90 and possibly 103.40-50 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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