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Mid-Day Report: Markets Stabilize as Focus Turns to FOMCGreece triggered risk selloff takes a breath today as markets' focus are temporary off to FOMC meeting. A group of European leaders, including German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy, ECB President Draghi as well as IMF Managing Director Lagarde will meet Greek President Papandreou in an emergency meeting today. It's believed that a clear message that there is no other solution to Austerity would be conveyed to Papandreous again. But it's also believed that there wouldn't be any change in the current uncertain situation after the talk. Papandreou will face a confidence vote in the parliament on Friday. Passing of the confidence vote will lead to referendum on accepting the bailout package and the conditions and on staying with Euro. Failing the confidence vote would lead to early elections. G20 leaders would also likely delay decisions on support to Eurozone during the summit in Cannes Thursday and Friday until the Greece situation is cleared. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5859; (P) 1.5976; (R1) 1.6063; More. GBP/USD recovers after drawing support from near term rising channel but is still staying in tight range below 1.6165 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and more consolidations would still be seen. But even in case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by 1.5631/5851 support zone and bring resumption of rebound from 1.5271. Above 1.6165 will target 1.6618 resistance next. However, break of 1.5631 will indicate that rise from 1.5271 is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for retesting this support. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed to Hold Policy Stance Unchanged, Focus on Improving CommunicationAt the November FOMC meeting, the Fed will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% and will not announce additional easing measures as recent economic data improved. Yet, the focus lies on policymakers' discussion about ways of increasing transparency and tools to boost growth when needed. At the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke will assure the market that the stimulus currently in place is sufficient and the Fed will promptly implement further easing measures should the recovery disappoint. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to edge higher in European session, some traders are pre-positioning ahead of today's FOMC at 18:15GMT with dovish expectations (some hope for hint on QE3). The release of better-than-expected U.S. ADP data also improved risk sentiment and supported euro, however, option-related offers are still noted from 1.3830 up to 1.3850 and mixtures of offers and stops are tipped further out at 1.3870/75 and 1.3900-10. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3780/85 and 1.3745/50 with light stops placed below 1.3700-10, however, more buying interest from Asian CBs should emerge around 1.3640-50 with sizeable stops only emerging below 1.3630 and 1.3600. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3795As the single currency has maintained a firm undertone in part due to cross-buying in euro, suggesting caution on our short entered at 1.3795 and 1.3825/30 needs to hold to retain bearishness for another retreat, below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3756) would bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3705), break there would signal top is formed and bring weakness to 1.3660 but a breach of intra-day low at 1.3637 is needed to signal the rebound from 1.3608 has ended Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0600As yesterday’s low at 1.0272 has continued to hold and aussie has rebounded, suggesting the first leg of decline from 1.0753 has possibly ended and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for rebound to 1.0500 and possibly to 1.0550, however, resistance at 1.0610/15 should hold and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.0272 would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.0753 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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