Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Action Forex Mid-Day Report 11-22-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Risk Selloff Resuming after US GDP Downward Revision, Surging Spain Yields

While markets attempted to stabilize after S&P and Moody's affirmed US's rating after the supercommittee failed to agree on the $1.2T deficit reduction plan, fresh risk selling is seen in early US session after Q3 GDP downward revision. Q3 GDP growth was revised down to 2.0% annualized rate, comparing to initial estimate of 2.5% and expectation of no change. Also, sentiments are weighed down by surging yields in Spain's T-bill auctions. Major European indices are turning red in early US session while US stocks are set to open lower. Dollar is attempting to rally again sterling, Aussie and Canadian dollar.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5569; (P) 1.5682; (R1) 1.5753; More.

GBP/USD's fall from 1.6165 resumes after brief consolidation and reaches as low as 1.5581 so far in early US session. Intraday bias remains on the downside for a test on 1.5271 support next. On the upside, above 1.5691 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.5887 is needed to signal completion of the fall from 1.6165. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 2.15B 2.06B 1.85B 1.91B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Oct 3.4B 4.3B 11.4B 10.2B
13:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Sep 1.00% 0.50% 0.50%
13:30 CAD Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Sep 0.50% 0.40% 0.40%
13:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q3 S 2.00% 2.50% 2.50%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q3 S 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov A -20 -19.9
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has continued to find decent demand from Middle East names below 1.3500 and rebounded in European session, stops above 1.3545-55 were triggered, however, offers from European and Asian names are still noted at 1.3570/75 and further out at 1.3600-10 with stops building up above 1.3615-20. On the downside, buying interests from same name and big corps remain at 1.3500 and also 1.3470/75 with light stops tipped below 1.3465 but sizeable bids remain at 1.3420-30 with big stops placed below 1.3420 and 1.3400 option barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5750

Despite intra-day retreat from 1.5692, as indicated support at 1.5612 has continued to hold, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and above said minor resistance would bring retracement to 1.5715-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5888-1.5612), however, renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5748) and bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Hold short entered at 104.20

Although the single currency fell to as low as 103.22 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation would be seen but as long as 104.45/50 holds, bearishness remains for recent decline to resume after consolidation, break of said support would extend the decline from 111.57 (a leg top) to 102.50-60, however, as this move is still viewed as correction of the rise from 100.77, downside should be limited to 102.00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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