Monday, November 14, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-14-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Weakens after Bond Auction

Euro weakens mildly today even though Italian bond auctions went fairly well. Bank of Italy said EUR 3b of five-year bonds were sold, with average yield at 6.29%, up from 5.32% in October. While the yield was significantly higher and was at an euro era record, demand was solid. Bid-to cover ratio was at 1.47%, up from 1.34 times in prior auctions. The result was somewhat reassuring that markets are responding positively to Berlusconi's resignation and Monti's appointment as the new prime minister. But there are still some uncertainties on how Monti's technical government would force through fiscal reforms.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.46; (P) 105.91; (R1) 106.47; More

EUR/JPY's recovery was limited below 4 hours 55 EMA and weakens sharply today. But still it's staying above 104.72 temporary low. Intraday bias remains ne neutral and more consolidations could be seen. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 108.25 resistance and bring another fall. Below 104.72 will confirm the case that rebound from 100.74 has completed at 111.57 and extend the decline from there to retest 100.74 low. Nevertheless, break of 108.24 will dampen this bearish case and turn focus back to 111.57 resistance instead.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q3 2.20% 0.60% 0.90% 1.00%
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q3 P 1.50% 1.50% -0.50%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q3 P -1.90% -2.20% -2.20%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep F -3.30% -3.70% -4.00%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct -0.20% -0.30% -0.10%
8:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct -1.80% -1.90% -2.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep -2.00% -2.30% 1.20% 1.60%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency failed to extend last week’s rise from 1.3484 and has retreated sharply from 1.3815 to on negative comments from Merkel and Warren Buffett on European situation, stops at 1.3720 were triggered and bids at 1.3690-70 were filled, Eastern European names were seen selling euro heavily. At the moment, mixture of bids and stops is seen at 1.3620-30 and more stops are tipped at 1.3600 (sizeable) but demand is likely to emerge around 1.3575-80 and also 1.3550. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.3690-00 and more selling interest is seen at 1.3740-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9010

Despite last week’s fall to 0.8954, the subsequent rebound suggests the correction from 0.9153 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 0.9053-66), however, break of 0.9090 resistance is needed to add credence to this view, bring further gain towards this level. Looking ahead, only above there would extend recent decline from 0.8568 towards 0.9190-00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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