Monday, November 28, 2011

Action Insight Daily Report 11-28-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rebound as Elite Bond Speculations Follow IMF Rumor

Even though the IMF rumor was denied, Euro manages to extend rebound today on another rumor of so called "elite" bonds. European indices are sharply higher with DAX and CAC up more than 4% while US open higher with DOW up over 200 pts. While Germany is known to be opposing the idea of bonds for the 17 nations, know as the Eurobonds, it's reported that it's in discussion with other fix tripe A rated countries, including France, Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria, about jointly issue bonds. The joint bonds, called "elite-bonds", are expected to stabilize AAA countries and could be used to raise funds to aid troubling nations including Italy and Spain. Yield could be at around 2-2.5%, slightly higher than German bunds. Though, Germany Finance Ministry denied the speculations.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3181; (P) 1.3265 (R1) 1.3319; More.

EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3212 extends further t o as high as 1.3398 so far today and stronger rally could be seen towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.3437). Nonetheless, we'd still expect upside to be limited by 1.3421/3614 resistance zone and bring another fall. Below 1.3212 will target a test on 1.3145 support first. Break will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4246 and should target 100% projection of 1.4548 to 1.3145 from 1.4246 at 1.2843 next.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
EUR German CPI M/M Nov P 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
EUR German CPI Y/Y Nov P 2.40% 2.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Oct 2.60% 3.40% 3.10%
11:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Nov -19 -12 -11
12:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Dec 5.6 5.2 5.3
15:00 USD New Home Sales Oct 310K 313K
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied in European session on continuous short-squeezing, offers at 1.3330-40 were cleared and stops at 1.3340 and 1.3370 were triggered, however, offers to protect stops above 1.3415-20 capped euro’s upside so far. At the moment, decent demand from Middle East names are reported from 1.3350 down to 1.3330, 1.3300 and also at 1.3270-75 with stops building up below 1.3270, 1.3250 and 1.3230. On the upside, if said stops at 1.3415-20 are triggered, next offers are reported at 1.3450 and bigger size sell orders are expected to emerge around 1.3500.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5485

Despite intra-day rally to 1.5595, as cable has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.5527) and the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5512) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5474) would limit downside and bring another rebound later. A break of said resistance would add credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 1.5423 last week, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5600-05

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Turn long at 103.00

Despite last week’s anticipated decline to 102.50 (we sold at 104.20 for 102.60), as the single currency has rebound from there, suggesting a minor low is possibly formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 104.35-40, break there would add credence to this view and bring retracement of recent decline towards 105.15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 106.78-102.50) and possibly 105.40

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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