Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-16-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovered after ECB Bought Italian Bonds, But Momentum Weak

Euro recovered mildly earlier today after ECB stepped in to buy Italian bonds but lacked follow through buying so far. 10 year Italian yield dipped briefly to 6.83% but quickly climbed back above the unsustainable 7%. Italian prime minister designate Monti unveiled his cabinet today and named himself as the finance minister. The new government will be sworn later today and would then start the work to tackling the debt crisis it's facing. Data released from Eurozone saw CPI finalized at 3.0% yoy in October, while core CPI was unchanged at 1.6% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3475; (P) 1.3557 (R1) 1.3619; More.

EUR/USD recovers mildly after dipping to as low as 1.3482 but still, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside. Fall from 1.4247 is still in progress and would target a test on 1.3145 low next. Break there will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 1.4939. On the upside, above 1.3794 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the fall from 1.4246. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bearish in near term.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Sep -0.30% 0.80% 0.70%
04:15 JPY BoJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
09:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Oct 5.3K 21.0K 17.5K 13.4K
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Oct 5.00% 5.10% 5.00%
09:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep 8.30% 8.20% 8.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Oct F 0.30% 0.30% 0.80%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct F 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Oct 1.60% 1.60% 1.60%
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
13:30 USD CPI M/M Oct -0.10% 0.00% 0.30%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Oct 3.50% 3.60% 3.90%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Oct 2.10% 2.10% 2.00%
14:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep 68.6B 63.4B 57.9B
14:15 USD Industrial Production Oct 0.70% 0.40% 0.20%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Oct 77.80% 77.70% 77.40%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 17 18
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.3M -1.4M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Although the single currency extended this week's decline to a low of 1.3429, euro found decent demand from Middle East names (related to buying of Airbus at the amount of 15 bln euro after the Dubai Air Show) there and rebounded on market talk that China is in touch with certain European countries regarding EU aid, stops above 1.3500 and 1.3550 were triggered, however, renewed selling interest quickly emerged just above 1.3550 and selling interest remains at 1.3560-70 with more stops seen above 1.3580. On the downside, some bids from same parties are still noted at 1.3450 with option defensive bids remain at 1.3420-30 (for protection of stops below 1.3420 barrier) and more buying interest is tipped at 1.3400 with stops below this barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3540

Despite intra-day rebound from 1.3429 to 1.3557, as the single currency then retreated after holding right at the indicated resistance at 1.3557, retaining our bearishness for recent decline to resume after consolidation, break of said support would confirm the fall from 1.4248 has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3400, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0110

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone, suggesting the rebound from 0.9892 is still in progress and bullishness remains for this move to bring a stronger retracement of the decline from 1.0658 to resistance area at 1.0329-38, however, this B wave from 0.9892 likely to be limited to 1.0365 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0658 to 0.9892) and near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0400

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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