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Daily Report: Risks Rebound as Greek Drops Referendum, Euro's Upside CappedMarket sentiments had another U turn as Greek PM Papandreous, facing strong opposition even from within his ruling party, dropped the call for referendum on EU's bailout. While both US and Asian stocks staged strong rebound, reactions in the currency markets are relatively mildly so far. EUR/USD is capped below 1.39 for the moment as Papandreous will still need to face a confidence vote today. And even if the government could survive the vote, it's reported that Papandreous would possibly still need to step down on a agreement with the conservation opposition. Meanwhile, failing the vote would lead to an early election. In any case, there are still much uncertainty over the Greece situation for the moment. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8570; (P) 0.8606; (R1) 0.8650; More Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as consolidation from 0.8548 continues. Further decline is still expected with 0.8669 resistance intact. We're favoring the case that consolidation from 0.8529 is finished with three waves up to 0.8830 already. Below 0.8548 will target 0.8529 first. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 0.9083 and should target 0.8284 support. However, break of 0.8669 will delay this immediate bearish case and extend the consolidation from 0.8529. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
ECB Cuts Rate by -25 bps, More to ComeSurprisingly, the ECB lowered the main refinancing rate, by -25 bps, to 1.25% as 'some of the downside risks have been materialising, which makes a significant revision to forecasts and projections for average real GDP growth in 2012 very likely'. Given rapid deterioration in global economic outlook and sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, further easing is increasingly likely next month. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's retreat from 1.3835 to 1.3660 in part due to surprise rate cut by ECB, the single currency found decent demand just above previous support at 1.3656 and has staged a strong rebound on speculation that Greek referendum is likely to be cancelled, offers at 1.3835/40 were filled but selling interest is still noted at 1.3855/60 with stops seen above there but more selling interest should emerge around 1.3900-10. On the downside, bids from various parties are reported at 1.3750-60 and also 1.3700-10 with stops only placing below 1.3650, 1.3630 and 1.3600 (large). Option expires today include 1.3775 (100 mln), 1.3875 (200 mln) and 1.3900 (300 mln). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold long entered at 0.8770Despite yesterday’s rebound to 0.8894, the subsequent retreat after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.8906 suggests further consolidation would take place and near term risk if marginal weakness cannot be ruled out, however, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove from 0.8568, previous resistance at 0.8740 should hold and bring another rise later. A breach of indicated resistance at 0.8906 is needed to signal the retreat from this week’s high of 0.8961 has ended Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.80Although the greenback has recovered after yesterday’s fall to 77.89 and test of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 78.20) is likely, break of minor resistance at 78.42 is needed to suggest the retreat from 79.10 has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 78.75/80, however, only break of indicated resistance at 79.10-20 would signal the pullback from 79.55 has ended, bring a retest of this level and possibly towards 80.00 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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