Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-1-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Weak on Greek Referendum and Global Manufacturing Data

Sentiments have been weak after Greek's referendum call re-raised concern over Eurozone debt crisis. Risk markets are further sold off today after poor manufacturing data around the world. Just released in US session, ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped to 50.8 in October, versus a rise to 52.2. Price paid component dived sharply to 41. European major indices are all in red with DAX and CAD down more than -4.5% while FTSE is down -2.7%. DOW opened sharply lower today and is down over -200 pts at the time of writing while dollar index jumps to as high as 77.67 so far.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3734; (P) 1.3952 (R1) 1.4076; More.

EUR/USD"s fall from 1.4268 extended further to as low as 1.3608 so far today and the break of 1.3652 support indicates that rebound from 1.3145 is already finished after missing 61.8% retracement of 1.4939 to 1.3145. Deeper decline could be seen retest 1.3145 low. On the upside, above 1.3871 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.4246 resistance is needed to confirm resumption of rise from 1.3145. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish for the moment.

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Featured Technical Report

RBA Cut Cash Rate To 4.5%, Not A Beginning Of Easing Cycle

The RBA cut the cash rate for the first time since April 2009, by -25 bps, to 4.5% as inflation has been contained by 'subdued demand conditions' and 'high exchange rate'. In the policy statement, the RBA delivered a more cautious view in global economic growth. It also lowered its inflation forecast and signaled growth outlook will be more in line with trend. We believe the reduction in interest rate is more of fine-tuning of the monetary policy than a beginning of an easing cycle.

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Fed to Hold Policy Stance Unchanged, Focus on Improving Communication

At the November FOMC meeting, the Fed will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% and will not announce additional easing measures as recent economic data improved. Yet, the focus lies on policymakers' discussion about ways of increasing transparency and tools to boost growth when needed. At the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke will assure the market that the stimulus currently in place is sufficient and the Fed will promptly implement further easing measures should the recovery disappoint.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q3 -1.20% -1.50% -0.10% -0.50%
01:00 CNY PMI Manufacturing Oct 51 51.8 51.2
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50% 4.75%
08:30 CHF SVME-PMI Oct 46.9 47.7 48.2
09:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.50% 0.30% 0.10%
09:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q3 A 0.50% 0.40% 0.60%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Aug 0.40% 0.50% 0.90% 0.80%
09:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Oct 47.4 50 51.1
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Oct 50.8 52.2 51.6
14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Oct 41 55 56
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Sep 0.20% 0.30% 1.40%
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: Euro's broad-based weakness on renewed eurozone debt concerns after the Greek OM referendum call is definitely the main theme, most bids were basically cleared and U.S. funds were seen selling EUR/USD actively, stops below 1.3700 and 1.3650 were triggered and more stops below 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3550 are in focus. Risk aversion also put pressure on the single currency with Dow Future down almost 200 points, offers are lined up at 1.3690-00 and also 1.3720-30 with more selling interest likely to emerge further out at 1.3770-80 and 1.3810-20.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6030

As the British pound has remained under pressure after breaking support at 1.5965, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.6167 yesterday and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to support at 1.5890-92, however, a sustained breach of this level is needed to turn outlook bearish for at least a stronger retracement of recent upmove to 1.5848-53

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0490

Aussie’s sharp retreat from 1.0753 signals recent upmove has formed a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to support at 1.0322, break there would add credence to this view and bring further fall to 1.0290/00 and later towards 1.0232 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9388-1.0753), then 1.0200, however, reckon support at 1.0145/50 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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