Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Action Insight Daily Report 11-8-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Steady After EFSF Regling Outlined Plan, Italy Vote Ahead

Markets are pretty steady this week so far except with notably weakness in Swiss Franc. EFSF head Regling outlined the plan to bolster the EFSF fund yesterday. There are two options under discussion. The first option involve a bond insurance certificates but there is dividing opinion on whether the certificate would be traded separately. The second option uses EFSF as seed money to create one or more co-investment funds. Both options aim at fire powering the EFSF fund from EUR 440 to as much as EUR 1T. EU finance ministers are targeting to complete legal and operational work by the end of this month and implementation is set for December. The EFSF 10 year bond attracted just over EUR 3b in orders yesterday. Demand was much weaker than the January sales, with EUR 44.5b orders for EUR 5b of five year bonds. The funding cost was also higher with the new bond pried at 1.04% above the benchmark midswaps, comparing to 0.17% in June sales. Japan said it bought EUR 300m of EFSF, or 10%. It's lower than the over 20% purchase of January's five year bond and June's 10 year bonds. China declined to comment on its purchase.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.89; (P) 107.48; (R1) 108.13; More

EUR/JPY is still staying in tight range above 106.49 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 106.49 will extend the fall from 111.57. Further break of 104.75 will indicate that rebound from 100.74 is finished and the larger down trend is likely resuming for another low below 100.74. On the upside, above 109.24 will flip bias back to the upside for 111.93 cluster resistance to extend the corrective rebound from 100.74.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:01 GBP BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Oct -0.60% -0.20% 0.30%
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Oct -24.00% -23.00% -23.00%
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep 2560M 3000M 3100M 2950M
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Oct 2 -2 -1
6:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Oct -24 -21 -17
7:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 15.3B 14.4B 13.8B
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Sep 0.10% 0.20%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Sep -0.80% -1.00%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Sep 0.10% -0.30%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep 1.90% 1.50%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts Oct 200.0K 205.9K
15:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Oct 0.50%
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went through choppy sessions yesterday, slipping initially to 1.3682 on soft retail sales data before finding good buying interest there and rebounded back above 1.3800. The pair then retreated again in late New York on selling by European and Asian names (also in EUR/JPY), stops below 1.3710-20 are within range and more stops are tipped at 1.3680 with mixtures of bids and stops remain at 1.3650-60 and further out at 1.3600-10. On the upside, Worries over France may lose its AAA rating may put pressure on euro and offers are reported at 1.3780-90 and 1.3815-20 with some stops placed above 1.3835-40 but sizeable stops only emerging above 1.3870 and 1.3900.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8920

As the greenback has continued to edge higher after yesterday’s rally, suggesting recent upmove from 0.8568 low is still in progress and further gain to 0.9060 and possibly test of previous resistance at 0.9082 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon previous resistance at 0.9122 would hold from here, bring retreat later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.60

Dollar’s retreat after faltering below Friday’s high of 78.27 has retained our view that near term downside risk remains for weakness to support at 77.89, however, as outlook remains consolidative, downside should be limited to 77.55/60 and bring another rebound later for test of minor resistance at 78.42. Looking ahead, a break there is needed to suggest the retreat from 79.10 has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 78.75/80

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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