Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Action Insight Daily Report 11-30-11 (trusted: contact@actionforex.com)

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Recovers after S&P's Bank Downgrades

Dollar recovers mildly today as sentiments are hurt by S&P's downgrade of some world's largest financial institutions, including some big US lenders like Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. Top UK banks include Barclays, HSBC holdings, Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland. This is part of the progress that of rating revisions on criteria changes the rating agency announced a year ago. Earlier this month, S&P said that updated ratings would be rolled out gradually for more than 750 banking companies worldwide, starting from the biggest banks. Overall, in this revision, 15 of the largest banks were downgraded, 20 left unchanged and 2 where upgraded (Bank o China and China Construction Bank Corp). This is much worse than S&P has predicted before, a 20% drop of banks to have ratings cut.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9149; (P) 0.9196; (R1) 0.9254; More.

USD/CHF recovers strongly from 0.9139 but it's still staying below 0.9330 resistance. And thus, intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidative trading could be seen. We'd continue to expect downside to be contained by 0.9107 support and bring resumption of rally from 0.8567 eventually. Above 0.9330 will turn bias back to the upside for 50% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9398 and above. However, break of 0.9107 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper decline to 0.8960 support instead.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Oct 11.20% -17.10% -17.20%
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Nov 49.1 50.6
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P 2.40% 1.10% -3.30%
0:01 GBP GfK Consumer Sentiment Nov -33 -33 -32
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct -5.80% -6.10% -10.80%
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Nov -6k 10K
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Nov 7.00% 7.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Nov P 3.00% 3.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Oct 10.20% 10.20%
10:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 0.66 0.8
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov 12.60%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Nov 128K 110K
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Oct 0.30% 0.40%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Oct 1.50% 1.40%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Oct 0.20% 0.30%
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 3.10% 3.10%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 -2.40% -2.40%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 58.5 58.4
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Oct 1.40% -4.60%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.2M -6.2M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Although the greenback rebounded after finding renewed buying interest at 77.62 yesterday, dollar ran into indicated offers from exporters at 78.10 and retreated from 78.13, offers from same parties are still noted at 78.20-30 with stops building up above 78.30 and also 78.60 (78.50 offers). On the downside, bids from Japanese investors are tipped from 77.50-60 with stops building up below 77.40, followed by combination of bids and stops located further out at 77.00-10, more stops are placed below 76.80 and 76.50 option barrier.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3330

Current breach of yesterday’s low at 1.3286 suggests the rebound from last week’s low of 1.3213 has possibly ended at 1.3442 yesterday and consolidation with downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.3250 and possibly 1.3230, however, break of said support at 1.3213 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3200 but near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3170

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.30

Despite intra-day rebound to 78.13, as the greenback has retreated from there, retaining our view that further consolidation below 78.29 would take placed and test of yesterday’s low at 77.62 cannot be ruled out, break there would bring retracement of recent rise to previous support at 77.46, however, reckon 77.30 would limit downside and renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rise later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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