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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Selling Returns after Solid Durable Goods Orders. EU Summit AwaitedDollar's recovery was rather weak and selling returns in early US session after solid durable goods orders lift risk appetite. Headline durables missed expectation and dropped -0.8% versus consensus of -0.7%. But ex-transport orders impressively grew 1.7% in September, strongest in six months. The data suggests that core capital spending continues to push higher and could help US avoid returning to recession. Also, sentiments are lifted mildly by news that German parliament has approved leverage of the EFSF Fund. Dollar index breaks 76 level again an reaches as low as 75.88 so far. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8750; (P) 0.8799; (R1) 0.8826; More... USD/CHF drops further to as low as 0.8728 so far in early US session and intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Current correction from 0.9315 is still in progress for 0.8647 (100% projection of 0.9315 to 0.8880 at 0.9082 at 0.8647) and possibly below. But, we're expecting strong support above 0.8246 (50% retracement of 0.7065 to 0.9315 at 0.8190) to contain downside and bring resumption of rebound from 0.7065 eventually. On the upside, above 0.8845 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. Break of 0.9082 will flip bias back to the upside and target a retest on 0.9315 high. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
The Long-Awaited EU Summit РWhat Will It Deliver?Rumors and headlines will continue to be thrown from everywhere until the EU leaders deliver a communiqu̩ after the meeting at October 26. The latest news flow said that policymakers are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt unless banks accept losses of as much as 140B euro on their holdings or a haircut of around 50%. Both Reuters and Bloomberg also quoted the need of around 100B euro for bank recapitalization. The Reuters report also mentioned a haircut of 50% but emphasized that 'several major areas of disagreement remain', especially in the EFSF plan and 'it will require vast amounts of hard negotiation between Sunday and Wednesday to strike a deal that convinces financial markets and Europe's major trading partners that the crisis is in hand' while according to the Bloomberg report policymakers are heading toward using the EFSF to 'guarantee bond sales as a way to extend its reach. A second option is to set up an EFSF-insured fund that would seek outside investment in troubled bonds' |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Once again the single currency rebounded in New York opening partly due to risk appetite and offers at 1.3960-70 were absorbed, however, selling interests from Eastern European names are still noted from current level up to psychological resistance at 1.4000 where a large option barrier is located with more stops seen above there. On the downside, bids from European and U.S. names are lined up from 1.3900 (option expiry) down to 1.3850 with stops building up below latter level and mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3820-30. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3810Although euro has continued to trade with a firm bias after rebounding from 1.3850 and marginal gain above yesterday’s high of 1.3960 cannot be ruled out, weakening of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3975/80 and reckon psychological resistance at 1.4000 would hold on first testing, loss of near term upward momentum has increased risk for a correction later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 1.0450The Australian dollar faltered below this week’s high of 1.0502 and has retreated sharply yesterday, suggesting a temporary top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 1.0300 and possibly 1.0250, below there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to 1.0190/00, however, reckon support at 1.0147 would limit downside and price should stay well above support at 1.0118 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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