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Daily Report: Dollar Resumes Decline as Markets Cheer EU ProgressDollar is broadly lower today as markets cheer the progress made by EU summit overnight. Expectations were low just before the summit and thus, the surprises were quite pleasant. The raising of bank capital requirement and explicit deadline of June was well received. EU also agreed with Institute of International Finance on a deal that imposes 50% losses on Greek debt. Also, EU leaders have agreed to leverage the EFSF fund by four to five times to around EUR 1T. DOW staged an impressive late rally to close 1.39% higher and the positive sentiments carried on to Asian session. Dollar resumed recent decline against Euro, Aussie and Canadian dollar and is soft against, Swiss franc, yen and sterling. Dollar index dropped to as low as 75.59 so far and is set to extend recent decline from 79.838. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0335; (P) 1.0385; (R1) 1.0449; More AUD/USD's rise from 0.9387 resumed after brief retreat and reaches as high as 1.0567 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.0764 resistance first. Also, note again that correction from 1.1079 has completed with three waves down to 0.9387 already. Above 1.0764 would pave the way to retest 1.1079 record high. On the downside, below 1.0464 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.0117 support and bring another rise. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
RBNZ Leaves OCR Unchanged At 2.5% As Outlook Masked By European CrisisThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in October, citing downsides risks on global and domestic economic outlooks as driven by the European sovereign debt crisis. Policymakers worried that the country’s commodity export prices will be hurt and funding cost will increase over the coming year. Yet, the central bank maintained the tightening bias that ‘gradually increasing pressure on domestic resources will require future OCR increases’. BOC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Downgraded Growth ForecastsThe Bank of Canada left the policy rate unchanged at 1% and delivered a more dovish statement citing weakening global and domestic economic outlook. The loonie fell after the report as the central bank is unlikely to withdraw the stimulus anytime soon. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency rallied after yesterday's retreat to 1.3798 in late New York and as EU leaders reached agreement on EFSF leverage, the news of 50% Greek haircut pushed euro higher again and just triggered option barrier at 1.4000, hit an intra-day high of 1.4015. At the moment, bids are lined up from 1.3980 down to 1.3940 with light stops tipped below 1.3940 and 1.3910/15 but sizeable stops only emerging below 1.3850-60. On the upside, offers are reported at 1.4020 and 1.4050 (where another option barrier is located) with more stops placed above latter level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Target met and buy again at 1.3945Despite yesterday’s sharp retreat from 1.3976 to 1.3798, the single currency found renewed buying interest in line with our expectation (we recommended to buy at 1.3810) and staged a rally from there, the breach of said resistance confirms recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.4050 and possibly 1.4075/80 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.4115-20 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 75.50Despite rebounding from yesterday’s low of 75.71, failure to penetrate resistance at 76.31 and current retreat suggest a retest of said support would be seen, break would extend major downtrend to 75.50, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 75.20/25 and bring a rebound later. A sustained breach of said resistance would suggest a temporary low is possibly formed Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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