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Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Dives as BoC Tightening Hold FadesCanadian dollar weakens sharply after Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged at 1.00% and dropped the reference to the need for withdrawal monetary stimulus in the accompanying statement. The bank noted deteriorating global economic conditions and now expect a brief recession in Eurozone as well as weka read GDP growth in US through first half of 2012. "Significantly less favorable external environment" slowed underlying economic momentum while domestic demand is expected to be at a "more subdued pace" than previously anticipated. GDP is expected to grow 2.1% in 2011, slow to 1.9% in 2012 before climbing back to 2.9% in 2013. That's considerably lower than prior projection of 2.8% in 2011 and 2.6% in 2012. Inflation outlook is revised down with headline CPI to "trough around 1%" by mid 2012. The statement basically removed the chance of policy tightening from BoC in near term. Also released today, Canadian retail sales rose 0.5% mom in August, stronger than expectation of 0.2% while ex-auto sales rose 0.4%, inline with consensus. |
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USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0001; (P) 1.0049; (R1) 1.0078; More. USD/CAD's strong rebound in early US session suggests that a temporary low is in place at 0.9990 and intraday bias is turned neutral. Some consolidations could be seen but note that another fall is still expected as long as 1.0263 resistance holds. Below 0.9990 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 0.9884. However, break of 1.0263 will indicate that pull back from 1.0656 is finished and will bring stronger rebound to retest this resistance. |
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The Long-Awaited EU Summit РWhat Will It Deliver?Rumors and headlines will continue to be thrown from everywhere until the EU leaders deliver a communiqu̩ after the meeting at October 26. The latest news flow said that policymakers are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt unless banks accept losses of as much as 140B euro on their holdings or a haircut of around 50%. Both Reuters and Bloomberg also quoted the need of around 100B euro for bank recapitalization. The Reuters report also mentioned a haircut of 50% but emphasized that 'several major areas of disagreement remain', especially in the EFSF plan and 'it will require vast amounts of hard negotiation between Sunday and Wednesday to strike a deal that convinces financial markets and Europe's major trading partners that the crisis is in hand' while according to the Bloomberg report policymakers are heading toward using the EFSF to 'guarantee bond sales as a way to extend its reach. A second option is to set up an EFSF-insured fund that would seek outside investment in troubled bonds' |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency edged higher again in European session and hit a fresh 7-week high of 1.3960, however, euro ran into offers from UK, Asian names and hedge funds there again and more selling interest is still seen from 1.3970 all the way up to psychological level of 1.4000 (where an option barrier is located) with bigger stop-buy orders seen above there. On the downside, whilst some light stops are placed below 1.3875, bids from Middle East names are still noted from 1.3870 down to 1.3850 and mixture of bids and stops remains at 1.3810-20 and more stops are building up below 1.3795/00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3825Despite intra-day marginal rise to 1.3960, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 1.3957 and current retreat suggest consolidation would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3858) but renewed buying interest should emerge around yesterday’s low at 1.3822 and bring another rise later. A sustained breach above said resistance would signal the upmove from 1.3145 is still in progress for gain to 1.3975/80 Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0315The Australian dollar has continued to trade with a firm undertone after breaking previous resistance at 1.0372, suggesting the rise from 0.9388 low (wave v as well as c leg bottom) is still in progress and price already exceeded indicated retracement target at 1.0434 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1081 to 0.9388) and 1.0490/95 (100% projection of 0.9388-1.0015 measuring from 0.9865), bullishness remains for further gain to 1.0550 and then 1.0600 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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