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Daily Report: Dollar Weak as Risk Appetite Lifted by Solid Asian DataDollar remains broadly weak as the week starts as markets sentiments are boosted by solid Asian economic data. The preliminary HSBC China Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 49.9 to 51.1 in October, back in expansionary territory for the first time since July. HSBC noted that the data confirmed their view there is no risk of hard landing in China. Japan trade deficit narrowed to JPY -0.02T in September. Impressively, exports rose 2.4% yoy, marking the second month of growth following five month decline after the March natural disaster. Asian stock indices are broadly up today, partly following the QE3 triggered rally in US last week. Nikkei is up 1.9%, HSI up over 4%, Aussie All Ordinaries up 2.62%, crude oil is back above 88 level while dollar index is pressing 76. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/AUD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3350; (P) 1.3424; (R1) 1.3463; More. EUR/AUD's fall from 1.4086 resumed by taking out 1.3368 and reaches as low as 1.3327 so far today. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further decline should be seen to retest 1.3022 support next. On the upside, note that break of 1.3497 resistance, though, will indicate short term bottoming, possibly on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and will bring stronger rebound. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
The Long-Awaited EU Summit РWhat Will It Deliver?Rumors and headlines will continue to be thrown from everywhere until the EU leaders deliver a communiqu̩ after the meeting at October 26. The latest news flow said that policymakers are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt unless banks accept losses of as much as 140B euro on their holdings or a haircut of around 50%. Both Reuters and Bloomberg also quoted the need of around 100B euro for bank recapitalization. The Reuters report also mentioned a haircut of 50% but emphasized that 'several major areas of disagreement remain', especially in the EFSF plan and 'it will require vast amounts of hard negotiation between Sunday and Wednesday to strike a deal that convinces financial markets and Europe's major trading partners that the crisis is in hand' while according to the Bloomberg report policymakers are heading toward using the EFSF to 'guarantee bond sales as a way to extend its reach. A second option is to set up an EFSF-insured fund that would seek outside investment in troubled bonds' |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: After hitting a fresh record low last Friday, the greenback rebounded in late New York on short-covering ahead of EU summit weekend, however, the currency pair met renewed selling interest from Japanese margin accounts and has retreated from 76.60. Japan's MOF Azumi gave verbal intervention again (usual speech of taking decisive action on excessive or speculative FX moves and yen's strength is not reflecting economic fundamentals) but he indicated specifically that the level of 75-76 is clearly speculative, suggesting MOF/BOJ are determined to protect this level. The rebound in Asian stocks is likely to support the pair in the meantime but offers are still noted at 76.50-60 and further out at 77.00-10 (by exporters) with stops building up above 77.10. On the downside, whilst the large DNT 76.00-77.50 was triggered, bids are still noted from 76.00 down to 75.70 with more stops seen below barriers at 75.70 and 75.50 with large option trigger further out at 75.00. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5875As the British pound has continued to move higher, suggesting recent upmove from 1.5270 low is still in progress and further gain to psychological resistance at 1.6000 would be seen, break there would extend one more rise to 1.6033 (1.618 times projection of 1.5631-1.5848 measuring from 1.5682), however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.6051 (61.8% projection of 1.5754-1.5974 measuring from 1.5915) Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.10Despite falling to a fresh record low of 75.78, the subsequent rebound to 76.60 (this morning in New Zealand) suggests consolidation above this level would take place but a sustained breach of said resistance is needed to signal a temporary low is possibly formed and bring a stronger rebound to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 76.86-88). Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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