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Mid-Day Report: Yen Pares Loss after Intervention, But Beware of Second RoundAfter jumping from 75.56 to as high as 79.52 on Japanese intervention, USD/JPY pares more than one third of the gain as the impact of intervention fades. The Japanese yen also recover broadly against other major currencies. There are talks that the Ministry of Finance spend around JPY 5-75T to buy dollars today, even more than the then record selling of JPY 4.5T intervention back in August. While some hailed the timing of intervention, just after BoJ easing last week, there were criticism that recent volatility in the Japanese yen doesn't really warrant intervention. Some said that it would be difficult for Japan to explain to other G7 counterparts. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 75.65; (P) 75.83; (R1) 75.98; More. After the intervention surge, USD/JPY formed a temporary top at 79.52 and retreated. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations. But we'd expect downside of retreat to be contained by 77.48 resistance turned support and bring another rise. As noted before, the strong break of near term falling trend line indicates that whole decline from 85.51 should be finished. Above 79.52 should send USD/JPY through 80.23 resistance to 61.8% retracement of 85.51 to 75.56 at 81.70. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Fed to Hold Policy Stance Unchanged, Focus on Improving CommunicationAt the November FOMC meeting, the Fed will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% and will not announce additional easing measures as recent economic data improved. Yet, the focus lies on policymakers' discussion about ways of increasing transparency and tools to boost growth when needed. At the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke will assure the market that the stimulus currently in place is sufficient and the Fed will promptly implement further easing measures should the recovery disappoint. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: After intra-day BOJ inspired rally to 79.55, the greenback once again ran into heavy offers from exporters and has retreated from there once bids at 79.20 were filled, price then quickly slipped below 78.00 level but bids emerged again at 77.80/85, more buying interest are tipped at 77.50/55 with stops seen below 77.50 and 77.30 but more bids are located further out at 77.00/10. On the upside, offers from European names and exporters are reported at 78.40/50 and also at 79.00-10 with some stop-buy orders placed above 79.20/25 and mixtures of offers and stops are seen at 79.50-60 and further out at 80.00-10 with sizeable stops building up above 80.30 and 80.50/55. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.70Dollar’s retreat after intra-day rally to 79.55 suggests a minor top has been formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 77.65/70, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 77.55) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of 79.10/20 would suggest the pullback from 79.55 has ended and bring a retest of this level and possibly towards 80.00 but previous resistance at 80.25 should remain intact. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 107.10The single currency rallied after brief pullback to 106.60 (just missed our entry at 106.55) and price surged to as high as 111.57, however, as euro then retreated quite sharply from 111.57, suggesting consolidation below this resistance would be seen and pullback to previous resistance at 108.14 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above 107.00 and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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