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Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Hammered as ECB Draghi Cool of Bond Buying after Rate CutRisk appetite was given a lift by ECB's expected rate cut but then reversed after President Draghi resisted from signalling expansion of the bond purchase program. The benchmark interest rate was lowered for the second consecutive months, by 25bps back to 1.00% as widely expected. Draghi pledged to offer unlimited cash to banks in 36-month loans and loosened collateral rules. Also, the banks' reserve ratios was lowered from 2% to 1%. However, Draghi clarified "misinterpretation" of his comments about the link between the "fiscal compact" and more bond buying. He denied the "implicit meaning" and indicated that no major bond purchase program was planned . Euro is sharply lower after the press conference. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.79; (P) 104.15; (R1) 104.54; More EUR/JPY as low as 103.00 in early US session and the break of 103.33 minor support indicates that recovery from 102.48 has finished at 105.54 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 102.48 first. Break will resume whole decline from 111.57 and should target a test on 100.74 low. On the upside, though, above 104.51 minor resistance will dampen this immediate bearish view and extend the recovery from 102.48 instead. |
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| Special Reports |
RBNZ On Hold. Growth Forecasts Down Amid Highly Uncertain OutlookThe RBNZ left the OCR at 2.5% in December and policymakers delivered a more downbeat tone in the accompanying statement. The overhang in the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone and the weakter-than-expected domestic data in recent month signaled that risks are on the downside for the economic outlook New Zealand. While the chance of a rate hike is unlikely at least until the second half of next year, a rate in increasingly possible in coming months. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the ECB lowered interest rates as expected by 25 basis points to 1.0%, the single currency has rebounded ahead of U.S. opening probably due to usual buy on rumors sell on fact reaction, however, further sideways trading is expected as traders still await the key event of the week – EU summit on Friday. At the moment, offers are still noted from 1.3430 up to 1.3450 with some stops tipped above 1.3455-60, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.3480-90 with more stops seen above 1.3500. On the downside, bids are reported at 1.3375-80 and also at 1.3350-55 with stops building up below 1.3350 and also 1.3320-30 (large). A large option at 1.3400 is going to expire at New York cut today which may keep price steady for the time being. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9190As the greenback has retreated again after meeting resistance around the Kijun-Sen and Ichimoku cloud top, retaining our view that further consolidation below 0.9299 (this week’s high) would take place and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness towards 0.9190, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8590Current breach of indicated support at 0.8518-21 adds credence to our view that the rebound from 0.8486 has ended at 0.8665 earlier and bearishness remains for recent decline from 0.9084 to resume, break of said support at 0.8486 would extend weakness to 0.8450, however, loss of momentum should limit downside and reckon 0.8400 would hold. We are keeping our bearish count that the wave 2 is unfolding as a complex correction Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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