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Daily Report: Euro Firm on ECB Expectation, Aussie Mildly Higher after RBAEuro was lifted as ECB President Draghi hinted that the central bank could buy bonds of maturity up to three years and in such case, he's not at risk of breaching EU rules. Draghi said in a closed hearing in the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that bonds of maturity up to "one year, two years, or even three years" will "easily expire". Hence, he noted "there is very little monetary financing effect". Under his plan, ECB would buy bonds together with EFSF and ESM to relieve the pressure of the high borrowing costs of Spain and Italy, based on some conditionality of reform. Draghi emphasized that the central bank "cannot pursue price stability now" because of a "fragmented eurozone". And, "all this has to do very much with the continuing existence of the euro in a moment when the rest of the world has now started to question the existence of the euro". |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 98.27; (P) 98.48; (R1) 98.74; More EUR/JPY recovers mildly but stays in range below 99.18. Intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidative trading. But again, EUR/JPY is staying comfortably inside a near term rising channel and thus, further rally is still expected. Above 99.18 will target 38.2% retracement of 111.43 to 94.11 at 110.72 next. On the downside, break of the channel support (now at 97.79), however, will indicate that such rebound has completed and will flip bias back to the downside for 95.71 support for confirmation |
| Special Reports |
RBA Slightly More Hawkish On Domestic DevelopmentsAs widely expected by the market, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in September. While acknowledging that risks to global economic outlook skewed to the downside, there were no hints on when another rate cut would be adopted. The meeting statement was largely the same as the previous one, but it delivered slightly more hawkish comments about domestic economic developments. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has rebounded again this morning in Asia and stops above 1.2610 as well as 1.2625 were triggered, however, offers are still noted at 1.2630-35 and option defensive offers together with stops are tipped in the area of 1.2645-55 (related to 1.2650 barrier) but more selling interests from funds and European names are reported at 1.2660 and 1.2680. On the downside, bids are located at 1.2600 and also at 1.2570-80 with stops building up below 1.2555-60 as well as 1.2540, however, fresh demand from Asian and Middle East names should emerge around 1.2500-10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5790Although cable has risen again after finding support around the Kijun-Sen and a test of recent high of 1.5912 would be seen, above there is needed to signal an upside break of recent range has taken place and extend recent upmove to 1.5940-50 and possibly towards 1.5970 but price should falter below psychological resistance at 1.6000. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9590Although dollar has retreated after meeting resistance again right at the Ichimoku cloud bottom and a retest of Friday’s low of 0.9504 cannot be ruled out, a break of this support is needed to extend recent fall from 0.9972 top to 0.9470, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 0.9450 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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