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Daily Report: Stocks and Commodity Currencies Tumbled While European Majors SteadyEuropean majors were generally steady against dollar and yen in Asia today but commodity currencies are dragged down by broad based weakness in stocks. Weak economic data reminded investors of the gloomy economic outlook. Japan retail sales dropped -0.8% yoy in July while Australian building approvals dropped -17.3% mom in July. Sentiments were also affected as investors were scaling back their expectation on Bernanke on the highly anticipated address in the Jackson Hole symposium. The latest Beige Book unveiled that economic activity improved "gradually" in most regions and "most Districts indicated that retail activity, including auto sales, had increased since the last Beige Book report". Technically, though, the big four EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF and USD/JPY are stuck in range so far and lacked inspiration for a breakout. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0332; (P) 1.0364; (R1) 1.0381; More... AUD/USD drops further to as low as 1.0316 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, rebound from 0.9588 is finished at 1.0612 already. Fall from there is expected to continue to 1.0176 and below. On the upside, above 1.0397 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1.0544 resistance and bring another decline. |
| Special Reports |
Previewing Jackson Hole Symposium - Wait Longer For QE3Investors are holding breath ahead of the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Reminiscent of the forum held in 2010, investors are full of hopes that Chairman Ben Bernanke would give some hints on the outlook of the Fed's quantitative easing policies. Not wanting to pour cold water but we do not expect much surprise to come from the symposium, mainly due to the fact that many thoughts of policymakers have already been disclosed in the minutes for the August FOMC meeting. We expect the rundown of Bernanke's speech would similar to those made in past years, including discussion of the economic outlook and Fed's policy responses. He would also elaborate more the various options of easing tools, with pros and cons of each being addressed. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's retreat to 1.2519, the single currency met indicated buying interests from Asian names at 1.2520 and has rebounded this morning in Asia, buying interests from same names plus Middle East and Russian names are still noted in the region of 1.2500-20, followed by mixture of bids and stops located at 1.2480-90, more stops are expected below 1.2460. On the upside, offers from funds and European names are reported from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 (for protection of 1.2600 barrier), more defensive offers should emerge further out at 1.2630-40 (related to next barrier at 1.2650) with bigger stops placed above there. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.2525Despite yesterday’s retreat to 1.2519, as the single currency has rebounded after finding support around the Ichimoku cloud bottom, retaining our bullishness and test of resistance at 1.2577 (this week’s high) would be seen, break there would add credence to our view that pullback from last week’s high of 1.2590 has ended at 1.2466, bring a retest of this resistance, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend headway to 1.2610 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 78.00Despite yesterday’s rebound to 78.79, the subsequent retreat after faltering below indicated resistance at 78.85 (this week’s high) has retained our consolidative view and further sideways trading within 78.27-78.85 range would be seen, below 78.46 minor support would bring a retest of 78.27, break there would extend the fall from 79.66 towards support at 78.15-16, however, still reckon support at 77.90 would hold from here and bring another rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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