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Mid-Day Report: Risk Rally Extends as EU Summit Euphoria ContinuesThe response to EU summit was so far overwhelmingly positive. European indices were generally higher along with other risk markets with DAX up over 2.7%, CAC up over 3.2% at the time of writing. While US equities also point to higher opens. Dollar and yen are broadly sold off on risk appetite. Naturally, in the risk seeking environment, Aussie and Kiwi gained most against other major currencies with Aussie up over 1.7% against dollar and yen while Kiwi was up over 1.6% against dollar and yen. Among European majors, Sterling lagged behind on reduced safe haven demand. In commodity markets, Gold followed weakness in the greenback and is heading back to 1600 level. But crude oil, while also recovered, was relatively weak and struggled around 80/81. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2439; (P) 1.2473 (R1) 1.2502; More..... EUR/USD jumps further to as high as 1.2690 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.2747. Break will extend the whole corrective pattern from 1.2287 towards 61.8% retracement of 1.3282 to 1.2287 at 1.2902. Though, we'll be cautious on reversal signal between 1.29/30. Meanwhile, in near term, while retreat might be seen, downside should be contained above 1.2406 and bring some more rally before corrective pattern from 1.2287 completes. |
| Special Reports |
Euro Highest In A Week After The First Day Of EU SummitProbably due to the lack of expectations over the EU summit, the measures agreed by the 17-nation leaders after the first day meeting surprisingly lifted market sentiment, sending the euro and European bourses higher. The Commission proposed to create a single supervisory mechanism with the ECB involved, allow the Spanish banking system to be financed through the EFSF for the moment and will later be replaced by the ESM without application of the seniority status and use the existing EFSF/ESM instruments 'stabilize markets for Member States'. The euro jumped to a 1-week high of 1.2627 amid improved optimism. Peripheral yield spreads also narrowed markedly. China Watch: Reverse Repos, Capital Flow And RMBIn order to ease the liquidity condition, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 14-day reverse repurchase operations worth of RMB 125B over the past 2 days. This was the third round of reverse repo operations, following similar money injection in January and May. The move raises the chance of another RRR cuts in coming day. Meanwhile, recent data shows that differential between RMB spot and fixing has sent a signal of capital outlook from the country, adding concerns over depreciation in RMB. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite yesterday's fall to 1.2409, the single currency staged a strong rebound this morning in Asia on very positive reactions from traders to the steps by EU leaders to lower funding costs for the nations of the eurozone, stops above 1.2500, 1.2535-40 and 1.2590 were triggered, more stops are reported above 1.2630, more stops are expected around 1.2700-10, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.2740-50. On the downside, first layer of buy orders are located at 1.2570 and also at 1.2550 with more buying interests expected from 1.2530 down to 1.2500. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5590Although the British pound staged a strong rebound on back of the intra-day rally in euro and broke above indicated resistance at 1.5650-51, current sharp retreat from 1.5680 (a shooting star was formed on the hourly chart) suggests caution on our near term bullishness and 1.5559 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5485-1.5680) needs to hold for prospect of another rebound. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Hold long entered at 0.9970Although aussie’s retreat from 1.0126 was slightly deeper than expected and hit an overnight low of 0.9996 in late New York, renewed buying interest emerged there and price has staged a strong rally today on back of euro’s strength, retaining our bullish view that pullback from 1.0225 (last week’s high) has ended at 0.9969 and retest of this level is likely. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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