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Daily Report: Euro Firmly in Range as Markets Await ECB LTRO ResultsEuro remains cautiously firm against dollar as markets are awaiting ECB to announce the result of the second ultra-long three year LTRO allotment, which should be released at around 1015 GMT. In the first three year LTRO, 523 banks tapped EUR 489b of funds from ECB at interest rate of 1%. Markets are expecting around EUR 400-500b funds to be tapped this time. Around EUR 150b would be rolled over from other existing facilities maturing this week. Hence, the total increase in liquidity could be around EUR 250-350b. around 10% of ECB's current balance sheet. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3411; (P) 1.3441 (R1) 1.3493; More.... EUR/USD's recovery extends further but is still limited by 1.3486 temporary. Thus, intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. At this point, deeper retreat cannot be ruled out yet and below 1.3366 minor support will target 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.330) and below. On the upside, above 1.3486 will extend recent rally towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4246 to 1.2625 at 1.3627 next. As noted before, decisive break of 1.3627 will have near term falling trend line resistance firmly taken out and affirm the case of completion of whole fall from 1.4939 at 1.2625. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency has risen after brief retreat in New York (after the release of strong U.S. data), offers and stops at 1.3465-75 were tripped and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3490-00 is now in focus, however, more selling interest is expected ahead of next barrier at 1.3550 with more stops placed above this level. On the downside, bids from various parties (including UK clearer and Asian names) are reported at 1.3435-40 and also at 1.3400 with stops building up below 1.3380 and also 1.3360 (large) as well as 1.3340. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3420Despite overnight brief retreat to 1.3389, renewed buying interest emerged just above the Ichimoku cloud bottom and euro has risen in late New York, suggesting recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.3509-16 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4940-1.2624 and 100% projection of 1.2975-1.3293 measuring from 1.3198) would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to previous resistance at 1.3550. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.45Despite yesterday’s fall to 80.01, the subsequent bounce suggests consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen and gain to the upper Kumo (now at 80.84) cannot be ruled out, however, as top has been formed at 81.66, upside should be limited to 81.25 and renewed selling interest should emerge below 81.50, bring another decline later. A break of said support would bring retracement of recent upmove to previous support at 79.89 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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