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Daily Report: Euro Mildly Firmer Against Dollar and Yen in Tight RangeSentiments are mildly firmer in Asia today on talk that EU is going to double the size of the bailout fund. The current EUR 440b EFSF fund would be allowed to continue funning while a new EUR 500b would come into force in mid-2012. Meanwhile, it's widely expected that ECB would cut rates tomorrow and provide additional liquidity measures for the banking sector. And, investors are hopeful that EU leaders would finally take some decisive steps to resolve the never-ending sovereign debt crisis. US Treasury Geithner hailed the Franco German proposition of a fiscal compact and urged a strong firewall to end the crisis. EUR/USD and EUR/JPY recover slightly but remain in tight range. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 103.74; (P) 104.04; (R1) 104.44; More EUR/JPY recovers mildly ahead of 103.33 minor resistance and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Another rise cannot be ruled out with 103.33 minor support intact. But the choppy structure of the recovery from 102.48 suggests it's merely a correction. Hence, even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 50% retracement of 111.57 to 102.48 at 107.25 and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 103.33 will flip bias back to the downside and send EUR/JPY through 102.48 to retest 100.74 low. However, sustained break of 107.25 fibo level will shift favor to the case that rise from 102.48 is indeed the third leg of the consolidation from 100.74 and would possibly send the cross through 111.57 before completion. |
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| Special Reports |
BOC Leaves Rates Unchanged, No Plan for Adjustment YetThe BOC left the overnight rate at 1%, as widely expected by the market, although global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply and the outlook of European sovereign debt problems remained uncertain. Although policymakers expected the recession in Europe will be 'more pronounced', recent economic data showing stronger-than-expected US economic activities in would lend support to Canada's growth. There have no signs of monetary easing but the central bank would probably keep interest rates at ultra low levels for some time. RBA Cut for Second Consecutive MonthIn line with market expectations, the RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month, by -25 bps to 4.5%, amid worries that the financial turmoil in Eurozone would further drag down economic conditions in Australia. The slowdown in Chinese growth would also reduce demand of Australia's exports. Policymakers believe that growth will be about-trend while inflation will remain within the target range of 2-3%. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to 1.3334 in European session yesterday, the single currency has rebounded since on solid economic data out of eurozone and price has continued to edge higher today in Asia, offers at 1.3430 were just cleared and mixture of offers and stops at 1.3450-60 is now in focus, however, more selling interest is tipped at 1.3480 with stops building up above 1.3490-00. On the downside, bids are lining up from 1.3400 down to 1.3360 with some stops placed below 1.3350 but combinations of bids and stops are still seen at 1.3320-30 and 1.3300. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5690Despite yesterday’s brief fall to 1.5562, lack of follow through selling on the break of previous support at 1.5577 and the subsequent euro-led rebound suggest further consolidation would be seen and test of yesterday’s high of 1.5665 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 1.5690-00 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.5721-28, bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 77.30As the greenback fell marginally again to 77.62, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 77.30 but as long as 77.50 holds, upside bias remains for another rebound to resistance at 78.11-16. Above there would add credence to our view that correction from 78.29 has ended and bring retest of this level but only a sustained breach of this previous resistance would confirm the rise from 76.58 has resumed and extend to 78.50/55 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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