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Mid-Day Report: BoC on Hold, Markets SteadyMarkets are generally steady as Euro and European stocks recovered from the selloff triggered by S&P's warning. Sentiments are somewhat supported by speculation that, later this week, ECB would cut rates by another 25bps and offer ultra-long liquidity operations. Also, markets seem to be optimistic that Canadian dollar is mildly firm after BoC left rates unchanged as widely expected. Aussie also recovered the post RBA cut dip. More noticeable movement is seen in Swiss Franc, which is pressured by weaker than expected CPI data. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0126; (P) 1.0159; (R1) 1.0201; More. USD/CAD continues to be bounded in tight range above 1.0079 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. More sideway trading might be seen but upside is expected to be limited by 1.0304 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0079 should send USD/CAD through 0.9891 towards 100% projection of 1.0656 to 0.9891 from 1.0522 at 0.9757 next. However, break of 1.0304 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 1.0522 resistance instead. |
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| Special Reports |
BOC Leaves Rates Unchanged, No Plan for Adjustment YetThe BOC left the overnight rate at 1%, as widely expected by the market, although global economic outlook has deteriorated sharply and the outlook of European sovereign debt problems remained uncertain. Although policymakers expected the recession in Europe will be 'more pronounced', recent economic data showing stronger-than-expected US economic activities in would lend support to Canada's growth. There have no signs of monetary easing but the central bank would probably keep interest rates at ultra low levels for some time. RBA Cut for Second Consecutive MonthIn line with market expectations, the RBA lowered the cash rate for a second consecutive month, by -25 bps to 4.5%, amid worries that the financial turmoil in Eurozone would further drag down economic conditions in Australia. The slowdown in Chinese growth would also reduce demand of Australia's exports. Policymakers believe that growth will be about-trend while inflation will remain within the target range of 2-3%. |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Despite falling to an intra-day low of 1.3334, as the single currency found decent demand there and has rebounded in part due to improved risk appetite (Dow Future turned positive), some stops at 1.3400-10 were triggered but more selling interest is expected from 1.3420 up to 1.3450 with more stops seen above 1.3460, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.3480-90. On the downside, bids are still noted at 1.3330-35 (for protection of indicated stops at 1.3320), more stops are placed below 1.3300 and 1.3250 (with bids expected at 1.3255-60). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9195Despite intra-day rise to 0.9299, as the greenback has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place, however, as intra-day breach of indicated resistance at 0.9252 signals the correction from 0.9331 has ended at 0.9067 last week, downside should be limited to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9194) and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.0250Although the greenback has retreated after intra-day brief bounce to 1.0207, break of support at 1.0077-80 is needed to signal the decline from 1.0524 (tentatively wave B top) has resumed and extend weakness to psychological support at 1.0000, otherwise, further choppy trading would take place and another corrective rebound cannot be ruled out. Above said resistance at 1.0207 would bring another a stronger retracement but reckon previous support at 1.0259 would limit upside and bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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