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Daily Report: Euro Led Major Currencies Down, RBA Cut, UK GDP WatchedEuro led major currencies down against dollar overnight and remains weak on a couple of factors. Firstly, there was news that Greece may need a referendum for passage of the new EU agreement. Secondly, China seems quite reluctant to step up its support to Eurozone rescue fund so far. Thirdly, OECD cut Eurozone's growth forecasts sharply. Meanwhile, disappointing Chinese manufacturing data adds further weight on the market sentiments in Asian session today. Dollar index is back above 76 level as Asian equities are broadly lower following the -276 pts fall in DOW. Aussie is also additionally weighted down by RBA's rate cut today. Nevertheless, one more thing to note is that EUR/GBP also displayed notably weakness and more volatility would be seen after today's UK Q3 GDP release. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/GBP Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8545; (P) 0.8665; (R1) 0.8732; More EUR/GBP fell sharply from 0.8830 and reaches as low as 0.8597 so far today. The decisive break of 0.8669 support indicates that whole rebound from 0.8529 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8529 first. Break will confirm resumption of the whole fall from 0.9083. On the upside, above 0.8648 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
RBA Cut Cash Rate To 4.5%, Not A Beginning Of Easing CycleThe RBA cut the cash rate for the first time since April 2009, by -25 bps, to 4.5% as inflation has been contained by 'subdued demand conditions' and 'high exchange rate'. In the policy statement, the RBA delivered a more cautious view in global economic growth. It also lowered its inflation forecast and signaled growth outlook will be more in line with trend. We believe the reduction in interest rate is more of fine-tuning of the monetary policy than a beginning of an easing cycle. Fed to Hold Policy Stance Unchanged, Focus on Improving CommunicationAt the November FOMC meeting, the Fed will likely leave the policy rate unchanged at 1% and will not announce additional easing measures as recent economic data improved. Yet, the focus lies on policymakers' discussion about ways of increasing transparency and tools to boost growth when needed. At the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke will assure the market that the stimulus currently in place is sufficient and the Fed will promptly implement further easing measures should the recovery disappoint. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchJPY: The greenback bounced briefly to an intra-day high of 79.10 in Tokyo opening before running into indicated offers from exporters at 79.10-20 and retreated quickly form there partly due to weakness in Asian equities, dropped back to as low as 78.01. Having said that, bids from Japanese banks are still noted at 78.00 and further out at 77.70-75, some stops are tipped at 77.50-60 but more buying interest should emerge around 77.00. On the upside, offers are lowered to 78.70-80 (in good size) and indicated sell orders at 79.10-20 remain thick with some stop-buy orders seen above 79.20-30, followed by combinations of offers and stops at 79.50-60 and 80.00-10. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.8740As the greenback has continued to trade with a firm undertone, suggesting the rebound from last week’s low of 0.8568 is still in progress and further gain to 0.8860 is likely, however, break of resistance at 0.8879 is needed to retain bullishness and signal at least a stronger retracement of recent decline is under way to 0.8900 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and resistance at 0.8951 should hold from here, bring retreat. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 77.70Despite intra-day brief bounce to 79.10, as the greenback has once again faltered below indicated resistance at 79.10-20 and retreated quickly from there, suggesting further consolidation below yesterday’s high of 79.55 would take place and another corrective fall to 77.65/70 would be seen, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud (now at 77.54) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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