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Daily Report: Dollar Soft as Sentiments Remain FirmDollar remains broadly soft with the dollar index continuing to press 76 level. Talks on the Eurozone debt crisis continued as Institute of International Finance warned that private sector involvement in Greece's second bailout would cause "severe contagion" effects and there are "limits" to voluntary participation. It's believed that the IIF is proposing a loss of at most 40% on Greek but EU finance ministers head Juncker is pushing for a haircut of 50-60% in Greece second bailout. Meanwhile, the it's reported that German parliament will hold a full vote tomorrow on the proposals to leverage the EFSF. Without passing the vote, Merkel cannot agree to changes to the EFSF. There are still much uncertainties in the situation, at least before another EU summit on Wednesday. |
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USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0001; (P) 1.0049; (R1) 1.0078; More. USD/CAD drops further to as low as 1.0017 so far today and the break of 1.0043 confirmed resumption of the whole decline from 1.0656. Intraday bias is back on the downside and further fall should be seen to next cluster level at 0.9984 (61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.0656 at 0.9884 and 61.8% projection of 1.0656 to 1.0043 from 1.0263 at 0.9984). On the upside, break of 1.0263 is needed to signal completion of the fall from 1.0656. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in near term even in case of recovery. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
The Long-Awaited EU Summit РWhat Will It Deliver?Rumors and headlines will continue to be thrown from everywhere until the EU leaders deliver a communiqu̩ after the meeting at October 26. The latest news flow said that policymakers are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt unless banks accept losses of as much as 140B euro on their holdings or a haircut of around 50%. Both Reuters and Bloomberg also quoted the need of around 100B euro for bank recapitalization. The Reuters report also mentioned a haircut of 50% but emphasized that 'several major areas of disagreement remain', especially in the EFSF plan and 'it will require vast amounts of hard negotiation between Sunday and Wednesday to strike a deal that convinces financial markets and Europe's major trading partners that the crisis is in hand' while according to the Bloomberg report policymakers are heading toward using the EFSF to 'guarantee bond sales as a way to extend its reach. A second option is to set up an EFSF-insured fund that would seek outside investment in troubled bonds' Both BoC and RBNZ Will Stay on the SidelineBoth we and the market anticipate the BOC to hold its policy rate at 1% in October for the 13th consecutive month. The jump in headline inflation in September has probably prevented the central bank to lower interest rates but it would definitely not trigger a rate hike. We expect the central bank will deliver a statement that warns of downside risks in domestic and global economic outlook. |
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European Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency continued to trade with a firm undertone on market talk of an agreement is near ahead of tomorrow’s EU summit, however, euro kept running into profit-taking sales (in good size) from UK, Asian names and hedge funds at 1.3950-60 with stops seen above 1.3960, more selling interest from same parties are tipped from 1.3970 all the way up to 1.4000 (option barrier) with bigger stops placed above there. On the downsides, bids from Middle East names are located from 1.3890 down to 1.3850 and mixtures of bids and stops are tipped further out at 1.3820 and 1.3800. There are also rumors circulating that EU summit announcement may delay to Friday. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5905Although cable has resumed recent rise after finding renewed buying interest at 1.5901 yesterday, lack of follow through buying on the break of previous resistance at 1.6001 and the retreat from 1.6008 suggest consolidation below this level would take place, near term downside risk has increased for retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5914), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around previous support at 1.5901 and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3830Although the single currency resumed recent rise after finding renewed buying interest at 1.3822 yesterday, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent retreat from 1.3957 suggest consolidation below this level would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3837) would be seen, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around said support and bring another rally later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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