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Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Recedes Mildly on Poor Eurozone PMIsMarkets are lacking a clear direction today. Solid Asian economic data lifted risk appetite mildly earlier just for being hit later then by poor European data. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped much more than expected to a 27 month low of 47.3 in October while services PMI dived to 47.2, also a 27 monthly low. And surprising, French services PMI dropped 46.0 even though manufacturing PMI improved to 49. Germany Manufacturing dropped to 48.9 while services PMI rose to 52.1. The data were very weak in general and highlighted that not only the peripheral Eurozone countries are contraction, the leaders are also facing strong headwind. As Markit said, "the PMI signals a heightened risk of the euro zone sliding back into recession." |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5811; (P) 1.5892; (R1) 1.6031; More. GBP/USD's rebound halted after hitting 1.5999 and some more treat could be seen. But note again that near term outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 1.5631 minor support holds. Rise from 1.5721 is still expected to continue and above 1.5999 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.6618 to 1.5271 at 1.6103 next. However, break of 1.5631 will argue that such rebound is finished and will flip bias back to the downside for 1.5271 low instead. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
The Long-Awaited EU Summit РWhat Will It Deliver?Rumors and headlines will continue to be thrown from everywhere until the EU leaders deliver a communiqu̩ after the meeting at October 26. The latest news flow said that policymakers are threatening to trigger a formal default on Greek debt unless banks accept losses of as much as 140B euro on their holdings or a haircut of around 50%. Both Reuters and Bloomberg also quoted the need of around 100B euro for bank recapitalization. The Reuters report also mentioned a haircut of 50% but emphasized that 'several major areas of disagreement remain', especially in the EFSF plan and 'it will require vast amounts of hard negotiation between Sunday and Wednesday to strike a deal that convinces financial markets and Europe's major trading partners that the crisis is in hand' while according to the Bloomberg report policymakers are heading toward using the EFSF to 'guarantee bond sales as a way to extend its reach. A second option is to set up an EFSF-insured fund that would seek outside investment in troubled bonds' |
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| Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: Although the single currency rose to 1.3955 in European opening and triggered the 1.3950 barrier, euro then retreated in part due to the release of mostly weaker-than-expected eurozone Oct PMI data, bids at 1.3900 were filled, stops at 1.3850-60 were tripped and some buy orders at 1.3830 were also absorbed. More buying interest is tipped further out at 1.3800 and 1.3760-70 with some stops building up below 1.3750. On the upside, offers are now seen at 1.3870/75 and also 1.3900-10 and mixture of offers and stops is seen at 1.3950-60 with next option barrier located at 1.4000. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5850As cable has retreated after intra-day anticipated rise to 1.6001, suggesting minor top is formed there and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5896), break would bring deeper retracement, however, renewed buying interest should emerge above previous resistance at 1.5848 and bring another rise later. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0315The Australian dollar has finally broken again resistance at 1.0372, confirming the rise from 0.9388 low has resumed and further gain in wave B is seen for test of indicated target at 1.0434 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1081 to 0.9388) and possibly towards 1.0490/95 (100% projection of 0.9388-1.0015 measuring from 0.9865), however, overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.0550 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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